Data-backed guides
Betting and tipster guides
Short guides with formulas, tables and our own data: how to tell a strong tipster from a lucky one and which numbers hold up over time.
12 guides · 55 min of reading in total · the numbers come from the leaderboard and update with it
- Start hereChecking tipsters· 6 min read
How to check a tipster: 7 steps and red flags
Seven steps to check a tipster, the red flags, and data on whether an edge lasts.
Updated 8 October 2026Read → - Betting math· 4 min read
ROI in sports betting: formula, examples and a good ROI
The ROI formula, a worked example, break-even win rates and how many bets it takes for ROI to mean something.
Updated 29 September 2026Read → - Basics· 4 min read
What is a capper in sports betting
Where the word capper comes from, how cappers make money and what the data says about their results.
Updated 29 September 2026Read → - Betting math· 6 min read
How parlays and system bets work: odds, payouts, examples
How parlay odds multiply, what a push does, how a 2/3 system works and how often tipster parlays really win.
Updated 11 October 2026Read → - Betting math· 5 min read
Implied probability chart: decimal, American and fractional odds
The implied probability of odds from 1.10 to 10.00 in decimal, American and fractional form, the formulas and how often picks at these prices really win.
Updated 11 October 2026Read → - Data studies· 5 min read
Consensus picks: do they win? What tipster data shows
How often the majority pick of tipsters wins, how consensus differs from public betting and how to use it: data from soccer, tennis, MLB and the NFL.
Updated 11 October 2026Read → - Betting math· 5 min read
What is a value bet and how to calculate expected value
What a value bet is, the expected value formula, where the probability comes from, the Kelly criterion and whether tipsters find value over time.
Updated 11 October 2026Read → - Betting math· 5 min read
Asian handicap explained: outcome table for every line
What 0, −0.25, −0.75 and −1.5 mean, the outcome table for every line, Asian totals and how often favourites win by the margin a line needs.
Updated 11 October 2026Read → - Data studies· 4 min read
Over 2.5 goals: how often it hits and how totals work
What over and under bets are, how often football matches go over 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 goals across thousands of games, and how tipsters bet totals.
Updated 11 October 2026Read → - Data studies· 4 min read
Both teams to score (BTTS): how often it lands and how it works
What a BTTS bet is, how often both teams score across thousands of football matches, how it ties in with totals and which scores are most common.
Updated 12 October 2026Read → - Data studies· 3 min read
How often do football matches end in a draw?
How often football matches end level, how that depends on the favourite, which draw scores are most common and how tipsters bet the draw.
Updated 12 October 2026Read → - Basics· 4 min read
Double chance betting explained: 1X, X2 and 12
What double chance means, how 1X, X2 and 12 work, how to price them from the match result market, how they compare with draw no bet and how often they win.
Updated 12 October 2026Read →
Tipster leaderboard
Which tipsters on X actually win
Every pick is graded against the final score and links to the original post. The index accounts for the odds and the sample size, so a lucky streak does not put a tipster on top.
Betting involves the risk of losing money. Adults only (18+). If gambling stops being fun, seek help.
- tipsters with picks
- 625
- picks graded
- 106,376
- matches
- 10,953