Asian handicap explained: outcome table for every line
What 0, −0.25, −0.75 and −1.5 mean, the outcome table for every line, Asian totals and how often favourites win by the margin a line needs.
Handicaps and spreads are a notable share of tipster picks on X: BetBuddyRank has graded 19,249 of them against final scores, and they win 57.4% of the time against 56.3% expected. Below are the outcome table for every Asian line, Asian totals, payouts and data from 20,997 football matches on how often favourites win by the margin a line needs.
An Asian handicap adjusts a team’s score: the favourite gets a minus, the underdog a plus. The bet is graded on the score with the handicap applied and has only two outcomes, with no draw as a separate result. In football (soccer) handicaps use regular time.
- Whole lines (0, −1, −2): if the adjusted score is level, the stake is returned.
- Half lines (−0.5, −1.5): there is no tie and no push.
- Quarter lines (−0.25, −0.75, −1.25): the stake is split between the two nearest lines. A −0.75 bet is half on −0.5 and half on −1.
The underdog’s line mirrors the favourite’s: +0.75 on the underdog wins where −0.75 on the favourite loses, and the other way round.
Rows are the favourite’s line, columns the favourite’s result in regular time.
| Line | Loses | Draw | Wins by 1 | Wins by 2 | Wins by 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | loss | push | win | win | win |
| −0.25 | loss | half loss | win | win | win |
| −0.5 | loss | loss | win | win | win |
| −0.75 | loss | loss | half win | win | win |
| −1 | loss | loss | push | win | win |
| −1.25 | loss | loss | half loss | win | win |
| −1.5 | loss | loss | loss | win | win |
| −1.75 | loss | loss | loss | half win | win |
| −2 | loss | loss | loss | push | win |
A line of 0 is draw no bet. On −0.25 a draw loses only half the stake, and on −1.75 a two-goal win wins half the stake and returns the other half.
Take a $100 bet on −0.75 at 1.95 (−105).
| Favourite’s result | What happens | Return |
|---|---|---|
| Wins by 2+ | both halves win | $195 |
| Wins by 1 | $50 on −0.5 wins, $50 on −1 is returned | $147.50 |
| Draw or loss | both halves lose | $0 |
On −0.25 at 1.90 a draw returns the $50 on 0 and loses the $50 on −0.5: the return is $50.
Asian totals work the same way: a whole line can push, a half line cannot, and a quarter line splits the stake in two.
| Over | 0-1 goals | 2 goals | 3 goals | 4+ goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | loss | push | win | win |
| 2.25 | loss | half loss | win | win |
| 2.5 | loss | loss | win | win |
| 2.75 | loss | loss | half win | win |
| 3 | loss | loss | push | win |
The under mirrors it: under 2.25 with two goals wins half the stake and returns the other half. How often football matches go over 2.5 goals is covered in the guide to over 2.5 goals.
We took 20,997 senior football matches with a regular-time score and, for every match with Elo ratings, found the favourite and its chance to win. This is how the favourite’s result splits:
| Favourite’s result | Chance under 50% | Chance 50-65% | Chance 65%+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8,431 | 5,190 | 1,127 |
| Loses | 32.4% | 23.6% | 12.9% |
| Draw | 25.4% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| Wins by 1 | 20.3% | 24.3% | 21.8% |
| Wins by 2 | 12.1% | 15.3% | 18.4% |
| Wins by 3+ | 9.8% | 15.7% | 29.3% |
How often the favourite’s handicap wins
| Favourite’s line | Chance under 50% | Chance 50-65% | Chance 65%+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| −0.5 | 42.1% | 55.3% | 69.5% |
| −1.5 | 21.8% | 31.0% | 47.6% |
| −2.5 | 9.8% | 15.7% | 29.3% |
The stronger the favourite, the more often it wins big: −1.5 covers in 47.6% of matches for favourites at 65% and up, and in 21.8% for favourites under 50%. For whole and quarter lines add up the shares using the outcome table: −1, for example, wins on a two-goal margin or more and pushes on a one-goal win.
Tipster handicaps and spreads from X, across all sports, win 57.4% of the time against 56.3% expected, with an ROI of −2.7% on priced picks. On the leaderboard half wins and half losses count as half a stake, and pushes stay out of the hit rate.
What does −0.75 mean in betting?
Half the stake goes on −0.5 and half on −1. A one-goal win by the favourite is a half win, two goals or more a full win, and a draw or a loss loses.
What does −1.5 mean in soccer betting?
The team must win by two goals or more. In our data favourites with a 65%+ chance do that in 47.6% of matches.
What does a handicap of 0 mean?
It is a bet on the team to win with the stake returned on a draw, also called draw no bet. A loss loses the bet.
What does +0.25 on the underdog mean?
Half the stake goes on 0 and half on +0.5. A draw is a half win, an underdog win a full win, and a defeat loses.
How is an Asian handicap different from a European one?
An Asian handicap has two outcomes, and whole lines push when the adjusted score is level. A European handicap splits the market into three outcomes, with the adjusted draw as its own bet.
- 1Find your line in the outcome table and check what a one-goal win gives you.
- 2Compare the share of matches where the line wins with the probability from the implied probability chart.
- 3See how tipsters bet handicaps in their profiles via the tipster lookup by handle.