How often do football matches end in a draw?
How often football matches end level, how that depends on the favourite, which draw scores are most common and how tipsters bet the draw.
The draw is the rarest result, and tipsters on X seldom bet it: BetBuddyRank has graded 271 single draw picks against final scores. Below is data from 20,997 senior football matches: how often matches end level, how that depends on the favourite, which draw scores are most common and what a draw bet is worth.
In 20,997 senior football matches, in regular time, the home side won 44.1% of the time, 23.4% were draws and the away side won 32.6%. The fair price of the draw in an average match is about 4.28 in decimal odds.
| Result | Share of matches | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 44.1% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 23.4% | 4.28 |
| Away win | 32.6% | 3.07 |
These are averages over all matches, leaving out women’s and youth competitions. Cup ties with extra time are graded on regular time: a draw after 90 minutes stays a draw for the bet.
We split the matches with Elo ratings by the favourite’s chance to win. The stronger the favourite, the rarer the draw:
| Favourite’s Elo chance | Matches | Draw | Favourite wins | Favourite loses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 50% | 8,431 | 25.4% | 42.1% | 32.4% |
| 50-65% | 5,190 | 21.1% | 55.3% | 23.6% |
| 65% and up | 1,127 | 17.7% | 69.5% | 12.9% |
In even matches the draw comes in 25.4% of the time, with a strong favourite in 17.7%. So the chance of a draw depends first of all on how even the teams are.
| Score | Share of all matches | Share of draws |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 6.2% | 26.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 44.5% |
| 2-2 | 5.2% | 22.2% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 5.5% |
| 4-4 or more | 0.4% | 1.5% |
1-1 makes up 44.5% of all draws. A draw with under 2.5 goals means only 0-0 or 1-1, together 16.7% of matches. Every score in regular time is in the guide to both teams to score.
The fair price of the draw in an even match (a favourite under 50%) is about 3.93, and with a strong favourite about 5.66. If the sportsbook offers less than the fair price, the bet loses money on average. The implied probability chart turns odds into probabilities.
The draw can also be a hedge: double chance wins on a draw, and draw no bet returns the stake. The difference is covered in the guide to double chance.
Single draw picks by tipsters on X win 27.7% of the time against 31.3% expected, with an ROI of +6.3% on priced picks. There are few such picks, so the numbers swing from month to month.
How often do football matches end in a draw?
In our data 23.4% of senior football matches end level in regular time.
What is the most common draw score?
1-1, which makes up 44.5% of all draws. 0-0 makes up 26.3% and 2-2 22.2%.
What are fair odds for a draw?
About 4.28 in an average match. In an even match a draw is more likely and the fair price is lower, about 3.93.
How is a draw bet settled if a cup tie goes to extra time?
Match result bets in football are graded on regular time: if it is level after 90 minutes, the draw wins, whatever happens in extra time or on penalties.
Can you win by betting every draw?
Only if the odds beat the fair price. With draws at 23.4%, the break-even price in an average match is about 4.28, and sportsbooks build in a margin, so backing every draw loses money on average.
- 1Judge how even the teams are: draws are likelier in even matches.
- 2Compare the price with the fair one in the odds converter.
- 3See how draw no bet hedges the draw in the guide to the Asian handicap.