Double chance betting explained: 1X, X2 and 12
What double chance means, how 1X, X2 and 12 work, how to price them from the match result market, how they compare with draw no bet and how often they win.
Double chance is a way to cover yourself against one result. Tipsters on X rarely bet it: BetBuddyRank has graded 2,005 such picks against final scores. Below is how 1X, X2 and 12 work, how to price them from the match result market, how double chance differs from draw no bet and how often these bets win across 20,997 football matches.
Double chance is a bet on two of the three match results at once. In football it is graded on regular time, with no push.
| Bet | Wins on | Loses on |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | a home win or a draw | an away win |
| X2 | a draw or an away win | a home win |
| 12 | either team winning | a draw |
Across 20,997 senior football matches in regular time:
| Bet | Share of matches | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | 67.4% | 1.48 |
| X2 | 55.9% | 1.79 |
| 12 | 76.6% | 1.30 |
The favourite does not lose
For a bet on the favourite what matters is not who is at home but how much stronger it is. Across matches with Elo ratings:
| Favourite’s Elo chance | Favourite does not lose | Underdog does not lose |
|---|---|---|
| under 50% | 67.6% | 57.9% |
| 50-65% | 76.4% | 44.7% |
| 65% and up | 87.1% | 30.5% |
“Favourite does not lose” is double chance on the favourite (1X when it plays at home); “underdog does not lose” is double chance on the other side.
Example: match result odds of 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60. Then 1X = 1 / (1 / 2.10 + 1 / 3.40) = 1.30, X2 = 1 / (1 / 3.40 + 1 / 3.60) = 1.75 and 12 = 1 / (1 / 2.10 + 1 / 3.60) = 1.33.
The formula carries the margin of the match result market into double chance. If a sportsbook offers less than the formula gives, its double chance margin is higher, and the same bet is better built from two singles, splitting the stake in proportion to 1 / k. The no-vig calculator shows the margin of the match result market.
Draw no bet also covers the draw, but differently: on a draw the stake comes back instead of winning. That is why draw no bet pays more than 1X. On the same 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60 market, draw no bet on the home side is about 1.48.
| Result, $100 stake | 1X at 1.30 | Draw no bet at 1.48 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | +$30 | +$48 |
| Draw | +$30 | $0 (push) |
| Away win | −$100 | −$100 |
Which is better depends on how likely the draw is: double chance wins on a draw, draw no bet pays more on a win. How often matches end level is in the guide to draws in football, and every handicap outcome in the guide to the Asian handicap.
Tipster double chance picks from X win 74.2% of the time against 69.7% expected. A high hit rate is built into the market, so look at the edge over expectation and at ROI: −14.4% on priced picks.
| Bet | Picks | Hit rate | Expected | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X (home or draw) | 1,111 | 73.7% | 74.0% | −23.3% |
| X2 (draw or away) | 888 | 74.8% | 64.3% | −5.0% |
What does 1X mean in betting?
The bet wins if the home side wins or draws. It loses only on an away win.
What does X2 mean in betting?
A bet on a draw or an away win. It loses only on a home win.
What does 12 mean in betting?
A bet that the match will not end level: it wins if either team wins. In our data 76.6% of football matches end that way.
How often does double chance on the favourite win?
A strong favourite (65%+ Elo chance) avoids defeat in 87.1% of matches, a favourite under 50% in 67.6%.
Is double chance or draw no bet better?
Double chance also wins on a draw but pays less. Draw no bet only returns the stake on a draw, but its odds are higher. It comes down to how likely the draw is.
- 1Price double chance from the match result odds and compare it with the sportsbook’s offer.
- 2Check the market margin with the no-vig odds calculator.
- 3Find tipsters who beat expectation on the tipster leaderboard.