European handicap explained: examples and outcome table
How a three-way European handicap works, the outcome table for −1 and −2, the ±1.5 lines and how often favourites win by the margin they need.
Handicaps and spreads are among the most common markets in tipster picks on X: BetBuddyRank has graded 32,299 of them against final scores. Below is how a European handicap works, the outcome table for −1 and −2, how it differs from the Asian handicap and how often favourites win by the margin a line needs, across 28,265 football matches.
A European handicap, also called a three-way handicap, adjusts the score by a whole number of goals and leaves the match with three outcomes again, like the match result market. Sportsbooks usually show it as Home (−1), Draw (−1) and Away (+1): the home side wins with a −1 handicap, the adjusted score is level, or the away side wins with +1.
The bet is settled on the regular-time score with the handicap added. There is no push: if the adjusted score is level, the handicap draw wins and both win bets lose.
Rows are the favourite’s result in regular time, columns show which bet wins.
| Favourite’s result | Handicap −1 | Handicap −2 |
|---|---|---|
| Loss | underdog +1 | underdog +2 |
| Draw | underdog +1 | underdog +2 |
| Win by 1 | draw (−1) | underdog +2 |
| Win by 2 | favourite −1 | draw (−2) |
| Win by 3+ | favourite −1 | favourite −2 |
Example: the favourite wins 2-1. With a −1 handicap the score becomes 1-1, so Draw (−1) wins, and both the favourite −1 and the underdog +1 lose.
We took 28,265 senior football matches with the regular-time score and, for matches with Elo ratings, found the favourite and its win chance. A −1 European handicap on the favourite:
| Favourite’s Elo chance | Favourite −1 | Draw (−1) | Underdog +1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 50% | 22.0% | 20.2% | 57.8% |
| 50-65% | 30.7% | 24.1% | 45.1% |
| 65% and up | 48.6% | 22.1% | 29.2% |
Fair odds for −1
| Favourite’s Elo chance | Favourite −1 | Draw (−1) | Underdog +1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 50% | 4.55 | 4.94 | 1.73 |
| 50-65% | 3.25 | 4.14 | 2.22 |
| 65% and up | 2.06 | 4.51 | 3.42 |
Handicap −2
| Favourite’s Elo chance | Favourite −2 | Draw (−2) | Underdog +2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 50% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 78.0% |
| 50-65% | 15.9% | 14.9% | 69.3% |
| 65% and up | 30.0% | 18.6% | 51.4% |
Draw (−1) is a one-goal win for the favourite, a common result in every group: 20.2%, 24.1% and 22.1% of matches. For favourites at 50-65% its fair price is about 4.14.
On a half-goal line there is no adjusted draw, so the European and Asian −1.5 settle the same way: the favourite must win by two goals or more. The underdog +1.5 wins on its win, a draw or a one-goal defeat.
| Favourite’s Elo chance | Favourite −1.5 | Underdog +1.5 |
|---|---|---|
| under 50% | 22.0% | 57.8% |
| 50-65% | 30.7% | 45.1% |
| 65% and up | 48.6% | 29.2% |
In hockey, check whether the handicap includes overtime. The NHL puck line of −1.5 usually counts overtime and the shootout, and a win there is always by one goal, so −1.5 loses. On a regulation-time line a tie after 60 minutes also loses for −1.5.
| Feature | European handicap | Asian handicap |
|---|---|---|
| Outcomes | three: win, handicap draw, loss | two, no draw |
| Line −1 on a one-goal win | the Draw (−1) bet wins | push |
| Quarter lines | none | yes: −0.25, −0.75 and others |
| Lines −1.5 and +1.5 | the same | the same |
The Asian handicap splits the stake and pushes, so it suits a bettor who wants cover against a narrow win. The European one lets you bet on a one-goal win on its own through Draw (−1). Every Asian line is covered in the guide to the Asian handicap.
Tipster handicap and spread picks from X across all sports win 57.2% of the time against 56.0% expected, with an ROI of −3.4% on priced picks.
What is a European handicap in simple terms?
It adjusts the score by a whole number of goals and leaves three outcomes: a win with the handicap, a handicap draw and a win for the other side. There is no push.
What does Draw (−1) mean in betting?
It is a bet that the favourite with a −1 handicap draws, in other words wins by exactly one goal.
What does +1.5 mean in soccer betting?
The bet wins if the team wins, draws or loses by one goal. Against a favourite at 65% or more it lands in 29.2% of matches.
What is the difference between a European and an Asian −1?
On a one-goal win the Asian −1 returns the stake, while the European −1 loses and the Draw (−1) bet wins.
What does −1.5 mean in hockey?
The team must win by two goals or more. If the line includes overtime, a win in overtime or the shootout is by one goal, and the bet loses.
What is an example of a European handicap?
The favourite −1 at a 2-0 win: the adjusted score is 1-0 and the bet wins. At 2-1 the adjusted score is 1-1, Draw (−1) wins and the favourite −1 loses.
- 1Find in the outcome table which bet wins on a one-goal win.
- 2Compare the share of matches with the probability from the implied probability chart.
- 3See how tipsters bet handicaps in their profiles via the tipster lookup by handle.