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@blackoutbettors676 followersfirst pick 4 Augusually posts 4 h before start

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BaseballNFL & NCAAF🥉 #3 in August 2026
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Tipster index80.5#2 on the leaderboarddeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
live
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils +2.5@1.91
Hit rate
77.8%
expected 49.8%
Edge
+28.0 pp
hit rate at least 64.7% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
36
28-8 · 1 pending
ROI
+59.5%
on 36 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W5, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

05103 Aug22 Aug10 Sept29 Sept18 Oct

By sport

Baseball16-5 · 21 graded
+24.7
76%
NFL & NCAAF12-3 · 15 graded
+32.5
80%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result11-3 · 14 graded
+28.1
79%
Handicap10-2 · 12 graded
+33.1
83%
Team totals3-3 · 6 graded
−3.2
50%
Totals3-0 · 3 graded
+49.2
100%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+87.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even27-8 · 35 graded
+26.3
77%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8914-4 · 18 graded
+40.0%
78%
1.90…2.2913-4 · 17 graded
+49.4%
76%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +36.4 pp
    14-2 · 88%
    ROI +63.6%
  • September 2026
    +14.0 pp
    11-6 · 65%
    ROI +21.5%
  • October 2026
    +62.0 pp
    3-0 · 100%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:32 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
live
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Parlay · 3posted 17 Oct, 14:37 · 5 h before start
odds 6.82Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +7.5@1.93✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels −4.5@1.89✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Over 48.5@1.87✓
Open on Xexpected 13% from odds+5.82 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:06 · 5 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:06 · 54 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 19:07 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:0
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox over 2.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 19:07 · 7 h before start
odds 1.81Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
8:0
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:57 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:57 · 6 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Florida Gators −2.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:57 · 6 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa State Cyclones
17:31
Utah Utes
Utah Utes −7.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:57 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
41:13
Oklahoma Sooners
Georgia Bulldogs −13.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 19:17 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
17:34
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 18:43 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
1:0
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox over 3.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 19:13 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
27:13
Syracuse Orange
Pittsburgh Panthers −10.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 20:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.79Won
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
4:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 20:01 · 3 h before start
odds 1.65Lost
MLB·
Washington Nationals
0:3
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies over 4.5@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 18:25 · 6 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 14:57 · 1 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
17:10
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners −5.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 14:57 · 9 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:23
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 14:57 · 5 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
17:45
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide −10@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 14:57 · 1 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas A&M Aggies
48:20
Arizona State Sun Devils
Over 50.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 20:40 · 4 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams −3.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Aug, 16:48 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
8:10
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs over 4.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 28 Aug, 16:48 · 9 h before start
odds 1.81Won
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
3:5
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 23 Aug, 15:42 · 2 h before start
odds 2.04Won
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.04
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.04 u
Singleposted 23 Aug, 15:42 · 4 h before start
odds 1.89Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
2:19
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 18:57 · 1 h before start
odds 2.12Won
MLB·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win@2.12
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.12 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 18:57 · 5 h before start
odds 1.71Won
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
5:0
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago White Sox to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 18:57 · 4 h before start
odds 1.81Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
6:4
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Aug, 21:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
0:8
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 8 Aug, 21:30 · 4 h before start
odds 2.05Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
2:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u