🏆 Money On Tennis 🏆

@Money_On_Tennis12.2K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 6 h before start

Tennis analyst with playing background. Evaluating probability by how rhythm, court speed, weather, fitness & psyche redefine matchups. #EdgeOverMatter

Tennis

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Tipster index74.8#3 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Hit rate

60.4%

expected 44.6%

Edge

+15.7 pp

hit rate at least 52.6% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck

Graded

111

67-44

ROI

+24.9%

on 75 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.55 u

Average odds

2.19

singles with odds

Form

streak W10 · best W10, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis67-44 · 111 graded

+15.7

60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result35-19 · 54 graded

+18.1

65%

Totals13-14 · 27 graded

−2.5

48%

Parlays15-9 · 24 graded

+29.9

63%

Handicap4-2 · 6 graded

+19.7

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-2 · 9 graded

+13.5

78%

Even35-27 · 62 graded

+6.7

56%

Underdog10-6 · 16 graded

+30.8

63%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8919-7 · 26 graded

+28.2%

73%

1.90…2.2913-17 · 30 graded

−13.8%

43%

2.30…3.499-7 · 16 graded

+48.3%

56%

3.50+2-1 · 3 graded

67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
+12.8 pp
23-19 · 55%
ROI +20.4%
September 2026
+10.6 pp
27-20 · 57%
ROI +21.2%
October 2026
+32.3 pp
17-5 · 77%
ROI +41.2%

By league

WTA 100012-1055%+9.2
ATP Challenger14-574%+24.6
ATP 10006-460%+9.3
WTA 5003-730%−18.9
US Open6-275%+24.8
ATP 2504-267%+14.1
WTA 2503-260%+9.7
WTA2-167%+30.4
ATP 5001-150%+5.8
ATP team tournaments1-150%+11.5

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Picks

Parlay · 2posted 19 Oct, 22:00 · 5 h before start

Won

WTA 250 · Japan Open·20 Oct, 02:40

Ann Li

2:1

Emerson Jones

Ann Li to win✓

WTA 250 · Japan Open·20 Oct, 02:40

Tereza Valentova

2:1

Shuai Zhang

Tereza Valentova to win✓

Singleposted 17 Oct, 00:15 · 13 h before start

odds 1.90Won

ATP Challenger · Olbia, Italy·17 Oct, 13:10

Maks Kasnikowski

0:2

Damir Dzumhur

Damir Dzumhur to win@1.90

Parlay · 5posted 15 Oct, 22:38 · 6 h before start

Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·16 Oct, 07:40

Maja Chwalinska

2:1

Maria Sakkari

Maja Chwalinska to win✓

ATP Challenger · Olbia, Italy·16 Oct, 09:10

Tom Gentzsch

0:2

Damir Dzumhur

Damir Dzumhur to win✓

ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·16 Oct, 04:10

Alexander Shevchenko

0:2

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win✓

ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·16 Oct, 07:05

Martin Landaluce

2:1

Keegan Smith

Martin Landaluce to win✓

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·16 Oct, 06:40

Rafael Jodar

2:1

Casper Ruud

Rafael Jodar to win✓

Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:48 · 11 h before start

Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·16 Oct, 07:40

Maja Chwalinska

2:1

Maria Sakkari

Maja Chwalinska to win

Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:36 · 9 h before start

odds 2.80Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·16 Oct, 05:10

Elina Svitolina

1:2

Sonay Kartal

Sonay Kartal to win@2.80

Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:32 · 13 h before start

Won

ATP Challenger · Olbia, Italy·16 Oct, 09:10

Tom Gentzsch

0:2

Damir Dzumhur

Damir Dzumhur to win

Parlay · 2posted 15 Oct, 20:09 · 8 h before start

Won

ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·16 Oct, 04:10

Alexander Shevchenko

0:2

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci to win✓

ATP Challenger · Jinan, China·16 Oct, 07:05

Martin Landaluce

2:1

Keegan Smith

Martin Landaluce to win✓

Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:16 · 12 h before start

Won

ATP Challenger · Olbia, Italy·15 Oct, 11:30

Dimitar Kuzmanov

1:2

Damir Dzumhur

Damir Dzumhur to win

Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:02 · 14 h before start

odds 1.53Won

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·15 Oct, 13:20

Ann Li

2:0

Janice Tjen

Ann Li to win@1.53

Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:52 · 11 h before start

odds 1.85Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·15 Oct, 09:55

Jasmine Paolini

0:2

Sonay Kartal

Jasmine Paolini to win@1.85

Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:38 · 8 h before start

odds 1.80Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·15 Oct, 06:25

Mia Pohankova

0:2

Maria Sakkari

Mia Pohankova +1.5 sets@1.80

Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:38 · 8 h before start

odds 3.00Lost

WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·15 Oct, 06:25

Mia Pohankova

0:2

Maria Sakkari

Mia Pohankova to win@3.00

Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:17 · 12 h before start

odds 1.53Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·15 Oct, 10:10

Alexander Zverev

2:0

Alex de Minaur

Alexander Zverev to win@1.53

Singleposted 13 Oct, 12:27 · 22 min before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP Challenger · Roanne, France·13 Oct, 12:50

Henry Bernet

1:2

Clement Tabur

Clement Tabur to win@2.00

Singleposted 11 Oct, 11:26 · 1 h before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 12:50

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2:1

Frances Tiafoe

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@2.00

Parlay · 6posted 1 Oct, 23:51 · 3 h before start

Lost

ATP Challenger · Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France·2 Oct, 11:45

Lucas Poullain

0:2

Joel Schwaerzler

Joel Schwaerzler to win✓

ATP Challenger · Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France·2 Oct, 13:40

Clement Tabur

1:2

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg to win✓

ATP Challenger · Porto 2, Portugal·2 Oct, 14:05

Jerome Kym

2:1

Edas Butvilas

Jerome Kym to win✓

WTA 1000 · China Open·2 Oct, 03:05

Viktorija Golubic

2:1

Peyton Stearns

Over 21.5 games✓

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 03:35

Valentin Vacherot

2:1

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Valentin Vacherot to win✓

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 09:50

Arthur Fils

2:0

Frances Tiafoe

Over 22.5 games✕

Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:29 · 12 h before start

odds 1.60Won

ATP Challenger · Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France·2 Oct, 11:45

Lucas Poullain

0:2

Joel Schwaerzler

Joel Schwaerzler to win@1.60

Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:18 · 11 h before start

odds 1.90Lost

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 09:50

Arthur Fils

2:0

Frances Tiafoe

Over 22.5 games@1.90

Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:10 · 4 h before start

odds 2.48Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·2 Oct, 03:35

Valentin Vacherot

2:1

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Valentin Vacherot to win@2.48

Singleposted 1 Oct, 23:06 · 4 h before start

odds 1.90Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·2 Oct, 03:05

Viktorija Golubic

2:1

Peyton Stearns

Over 21.5 games@1.90

Singleposted 1 Oct, 22:25 · 16 h before start

odds 1.72Won

ATP Challenger · Porto 2, Portugal·2 Oct, 14:05

Jerome Kym

2:1

Edas Butvilas

Jerome Kym to win@1.72

Singleposted 1 Oct, 21:59 · 16 h before start

odds 1.72Won

ATP Challenger · Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France·2 Oct, 13:40

Clement Tabur

1:2

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg to win@1.72

Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:04 · 2 h before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·26 Sept, 18:25

Carlos Alcaraz

2:1

Taylor Fritz

Over 20.5 games@2.00

Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:04 · 2 h before start

odds 3.25Lost

ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·26 Sept, 18:25

Carlos Alcaraz

2:1

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz to win@3.25

Singleposted 25 Sept, 21:00 · 20 min before start

odds 1.75Won

ATP Challenger · San Diego 2, USA·25 Sept, 21:20

Tristan Boyer

1:2

Timo Legout

Over 21.5 games@1.75

Singleposted 25 Sept, 21:00 · 20 min before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP Challenger · San Diego 2, USA·25 Sept, 21:20

Tristan Boyer

1:2

Timo Legout

Timo Legout to win@2.00

Singleposted 24 Sept, 12:12 · 3 h before start

odds 3.00Lost

ATP Challenger · St. Tropez, France·24 Sept, 15:40

Andrea Guerrieri

1:2

Jesper de Jong

Andrea Guerrieri to win@3.00

Singleposted 23 Sept, 21:11 · 8 h before start

Won

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·24 Sept, 05:10

Dane Sweeny

0:2

Taro Daniel

Taro Daniel to win

Singleposted 23 Sept, 21:01 · 12 h before start

odds 2.80Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·24 Sept, 08:55

Miomir Kecmanovic

0:2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@2.80

Singleposted 23 Sept, 21:01 · 12 h before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·24 Sept, 08:55

Miomir Kecmanovic

0:2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili +2.5@2.00