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Sharp Capital

@SharpCapital13.9K followersfirst pick 4 Octusually posts 2 h before start

Sports betting run like a fund. AI-built model, disciplined unit sizing, every play tracked in public — wins and losses. 21+ | Bet responsibly.

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index58.7needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
75.0%
expected 54.4%
Edge
+20.6 pp
over expectation
Graded
8
6-2
ROI
+31.6%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.82
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W3, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511.54 Oct8 Oct12 Oct16 Oct20 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-1 · 5 graded
+26.5
80%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+10.7
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result2-2 · 4 graded
−4.0
50%
Handicap2-0 · 2 graded
+49.7
100%
Totals2-0 · 2 graded
+40.7
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−13.9
50%
Even5-1 · 6 graded
+32.1
83%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +20.6 pp
    6-2 · 75%
    ROI +31.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 20 Oct, 00:03 · 11 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:49 · 1 h before start
odds 1.98Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Sam Houston State Bearkats to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:10 · 3 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Over 40.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 21:52 · 7 min before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 21:52 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 21:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 21:01 · 4 days before start
odds 1.95Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Bowling Green Falcons
38:10
Sacramento State Hornets
Bowling Green Falcons +1.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:48 · 8 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Over 50.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u