Real Sociedad vs Lyon: tipster picks, odds and form
Text written 5 Nov, 15:50, the numbers in the blocks stay live
LyonWhat tipsters picked for Real Sociedad vs Lyon
We tracked 33 picks from 17 tipsters on this match. 13 of them picked Real Sociedad to win. Not one picked Lyon, and nobody picked both sides.
The other 4 tipsters made no straight winner pick. TheBeardWiz and Aiprotips1 took Real Sociedad on the double chance, which also wins on a draw. freetips picked both teams to score, and sharpbetsclub picked more than 2.5 goals. In total, 5 tipsters expect both teams to score.
- Real Sociedad over 1.52
- Lyon over 0.52
- Real Sociedad over 0.52
- Real Sociedad or draw4
Can you trust these tipsters?
This is not an elite crowd. We rank 803 tipsters, and none of the 17 here is in our top 100. The best placed is carlaBets at 123rd, and 5 of the 17 have an index above 55.
The 13 Real Sociedad backers include 8 with graded picks in the Europa League. Together they won 64% of 420 picks. That is almost exactly the 65% expected from the odds and team strength, so they have not beaten the market here.
A few individual records stand out. TheBeardWiz won 73% of 30 Europa League picks, against 59% expected, but backed only the double chance here. Live2Sport_com won 35% of 34, well below the 51% expected. AdamsSmith7w won all 4 graded picks, which is far too small a sample to read anything into.
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Real Sociedad vs Lyon odds
At DraftKings, Real Sociedad have shortened from 1.952 at opening to 1.556 now. With the bookmaker's margin of about 5% removed, that price gives them roughly a 61% chance. A bet at 1.556 needs to win about 64% of the time just to break even.
The draw has drifted from 3.65 to 4.6, or about 21% without the margin. Lyon have drifted from 3.5 to 5.25, which works out to about 18%.
The goals line has moved up too. It opened at 2.5 and now sits at 3.5. The over at 2.2 means about a 43% chance of 4 or more goals.
| DraftKings | Open | Now | No margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.95 | 1.56 | 61% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 4.60 | 21% |
| Lyon | 3.50 | 5.25 | 18% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.5: 1.59 | 2.20 | 43% |
Form and the table
Real Sociedad, most recent first: lost 1-2 at Athletic Club, beat Levante 2-1, won 6-0 at Lillestroem, won 5-2 at Malaga and drew 1-1 at Union St.Gilloise. The Lillestroem and Union St.Gilloise games were in the Europa League.
Lyon, most recent first: beat Angers 2-0, lost 0-2 at Paris Saint-Germain, lost 0-3 at Hoffenheim, beat Nice 2-1 and beat Crystal Palace 3-2. The Hoffenheim and Crystal Palace games were in the Europa League.
In the 36-team Europa League table, Lyon are 13th with 6 points from 3 games and a goal difference of -1. Real Sociedad are 14th with 4 points from 3 games, but with a goal difference of +5.
Real Sociedad
14 of 36 · 4 pts · W1 D1 L1
- L1:2@ Athletic ClubLaLiga
- W2:1LevanteLaLiga
- W6:0@ LillestroemEuropa League
- W5:2@ MalagaLaLiga
- D1:1@ Union St.GilloiseEuropa League
Lyon
13 of 36 · 6 pts · W2 D0 L1
- W2:0AngersLigue 1
- L0:2@ Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
- L0:3@ HoffenheimEuropa League
- W2:1NiceLigue 1
- W3:2Crystal PalaceEuropa League
How often is the majority right?
In the Europa League, the side most tipsters picked has won 67% of 67 matches we graded. That is a little above the 64% expected from the odds and team strength. Across all competitions, the majority pick won 64% of 6,770 matches, against 61% expected.
Winning often is not the same as making money, because favourites pay little when they win. Across 109,166 graded picks with prices, following every pick would have lost about 3.4% of the money staked. Our backtests found no proven profit in following tipsters.