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CarlaBets

@carlaBets167 followersfirst pick 14 Augusually posts 7 h before start

Carla Bets 🩷 Sígueme y obtendrás beneficios.✨️ ANALISIS DEPORTIVO FUTBOL Y TENIS ⚽️📊

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Tipster index58.2#113 on the leaderboarddown 15 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 5

Games not played yet
Primera Division · Primera Division: Clausura·
Gimnasia Mendoza
live
Club Atletico Platense
Under 3.5
Primera Division · Primera Division: Clausura·
Gimnasia Mendoza
live
Club Atletico Platense
Gimnasia Mendoza to win@2.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Serie A·
Cruzeiro
-:-
Remo
Cruzeiro or draw
Serie A·
Cruzeiro
-:-
Remo
Cruzeiro to win@1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Bahrain · Premier League·
Malkia
-:-
Al Ahli
Al Ahli to win
Hit rate
66.0%
expected 61.6%
Edge
+4.4 pp
hit rate at least 62.0% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
392
258-133-1 · 5 pending
ROI
−2.2%
on 189 picks with odds · max drawdown −12.14 u
Average odds
1.74
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W16, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-505101513 Aug31 Aug18 Sept6 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Football201-105 · 306 graded
+3.2
66%
Basketball43-10 · 53 graded
+19.2
81%
Tennis14-17-1 · 32 graded
−7.3
45%
Hockey0-1 · 1 graded
−46.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result217-108 · 325 graded
+3.4
67%
Parlays12-14 · 26 graded
+12.6
46%
Totals18-3-1 · 22 graded
+17.3
86%
Both teams to score2-7 · 9 graded
−34.9
22%
Double chance5-0 · 5 graded
+23.1
100%
Team totals2-1 · 3 graded
+9.3
67%
Handicap2-0 · 2 graded
+45.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite190-47-1 · 238 graded
+6.0
80%
Even44-42 · 86 graded
+0.8
51%
Underdog12-30 · 42 graded
−2.2
29%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5066-15 · 81 graded
+1.0%
81%
1.50…1.8932-15 · 47 graded
+12.0%
68%
1.90…2.2910-14 · 24 graded
−12.9%
42%
2.30…3.497-22 · 29 graded
−43.5%
24%
3.50+1-3 · 4 graded
-
25%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −8.0 pp
    3-6 · 33%
    ROI +12.3%
  • September 2026
    +8.0 pp
    62-36 · 63%
    ROI +1.8%
  • October 2026
    +3.6 pp
    193-91-1 · 68%
    ROI −4.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 13 h before start
Pending
Primera Division · Primera Division: Clausura·
Gimnasia Mendoza
live
Club Atletico Platense
Under 3.5
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 9 h before start
Won
Eerste Divisie·
FC Volendam
6:2
Jong FC Utrecht
FC Volendam over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 9 h before start
Won
CAF Champions League · CAF Champions League: Qualification·
Mamelodi Sundowns FC
1:1
Wiliete Benguela
Mamelodi Sundowns FC or draw
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 10 h before start
Won
League of Ireland Premier Division·
Shamrock Rovers
4:0
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers or draw
Open on Xexpected 91% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 10 h before start
Won
Cymru Premier · JD Cymru Premier·
TNS
9:0
Ammanford
TNS to win
Open on Xexpected 91% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 8 h before start
Won
1st Division·
Hvidovre
2:2
HB Koege
Hvidovre or draw
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:37 · 14 h before start
Pending
Serie A·
Cruzeiro
-:-
Remo
Cruzeiro or draw
Open on Xexpected 88% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:27 · 10 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Eredivisie·
Go Ahead Eagles
3:2
Telstar
Go Ahead Eagles to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:27 · 10 h before start
Won
Ligue 1·
Brest
1:2
Nice
Under 3.5
Open on Xexpected 74% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:27 · 11 h before start
Won
LaLiga·
Deportivo Alaves
1:1
Malaga
Under 3.5
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:27 · 10 h before start
odds 3.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Serie A·
Torino
3:2
Monza
Draw
Open on Xexpected 29% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:27 · 11 h before start
odds 4.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Primeira Liga·
Vitoria de Guimaraes
5:0
Maritimo
Draw
Open on Xexpected 24% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:27 · 10 h before start
odds 1.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Bundesliga·
VfB Stuttgart
2:3
Borussia M'gladbach
VfB Stuttgart to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 10 h before start
Won
France · Pro B·
Nantes
99:90
Alliance Sport Alsace
Nantes to win
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 8 h before start
Won
Cyprus · A League·
APOEL
84:62
Achilleas Kaimakli
APOEL to win
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 9 h before start
Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Zalgiris Kaunas
105:85
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne
Zalgiris Kaunas to win
Open on Xexpected 74% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 8 h before start
Won
Denmark · Basket Ligaen·
Svendborg
97:82
EBAA
Svendborg to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 10 h before start
Won
Great Britain · SLB·
Newcastle Eagles
82:55
Surrey 89ers
Newcastle Eagles to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 7 h before start
Won
Finland · Korisliiga·
KTP Basket
99:75
Kouvot
KTP Basket to win
Open on Xexpected 77% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:24 · 7 h before start
Won
Adriatic · ABA League: Group B·
U-BT Cluj-Napoca
100:78
KK Studentski centar
U-BT Cluj-Napoca to win
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 15 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
Serie A·
Cruzeiro
-:-
Remo
Cruzeiro to win
Open on Xexpected 73% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 10 h before start
Lost
CAF Champions League · CAF Champions League: Qualification·
Mamelodi Sundowns FC
1:1
Wiliete Benguela
Mamelodi Sundowns FC to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 9 h before start
Lost
1st Division·
Hvidovre
2:2
HB Koege
Hvidovre to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 10 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Eerste Divisie·
FC Volendam
6:2
Jong FC Utrecht
FC Volendam to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 11 h before start
Won
League of Ireland Premier Division·
Shamrock Rovers
4:0
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers to win
Open on Xexpected 85% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 13 h before start
odds 2.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
Primera Division · Primera Division: Clausura·
Gimnasia Mendoza
live
Club Atletico Platense
Gimnasia Mendoza to win
Open on Xexpected 36% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 08:22 · 8 h before start
Won
Kuwait · Premier League·
Al-Tadhamon
2:6
Kuwait SC
Kuwait SC to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 12:05 · 1 h before start
Won
Uzbekistan · Super League·
Bunyodkor Tashkent
2:1
Mashal Muborak
Bunyodkor Tashkent to win
Open on Xexpected 80% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 12:05 · 3 h before start
Won
Jordan · Pro League·
Al-Hussein SC
1:0
Doqara
Al-Hussein SC to win
Open on Xexpected 81% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 12:05 · 5 h before start
odds 1.41DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Ferencvaros
4:1
Torreense
Ferencvaros to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.41 u