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Erica Matthews

@ericamathews262133 followersfirst pick 10 Septusually posts 9 h before start

💰 Turning odds into profit

NFL & NCAAFFootballHockeyTennisBaseballBasketball
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Tipster index50.6#323 on the leaderboarddown 84 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win@1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks +3.5
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win@1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win@1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win@1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
60.7%
expected 60.4%
Edge
+0.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 56.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
410
249-161 · 11 pending
ROI
−4.7%
on 276 picks with odds · max drawdown −20.96 u
Average odds
1.59
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W13, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10-509 Sept20 Sept1 Oct11 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF61-39 · 100 graded
+1.1
61%
Football51-30 · 81 graded
−0.5
63%
Hockey57-21 · 78 graded
+10.4
73%
Tennis39-33 · 72 graded
−5.9
54%
Baseball25-27 · 52 graded
−7.8
48%
Basketball16-11 · 27 graded
+2.8
59%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result169-109 · 278 graded
−0.7
61%
Handicap70-27 · 97 graded
+6.6
72%
Parlays0-18 · 18 graded
−15.0
0%
Totals8-6 · 14 graded
−1.7
57%
Double chance2-1 · 3 graded
−3.4
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite172-64 · 236 graded
+2.4
73%
Even73-69 · 142 graded
−0.6
51%
Underdog4-10 · 14 graded
−6.5
29%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5093-30 · 123 graded
+0.4%
76%
1.50…1.8969-51 · 120 graded
−4.6%
57%
1.90…2.2910-14 · 24 graded
−15.0%
42%
2.30…3.492-6 · 8 graded
−40.0%
25%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −2.4 pp
    66-50 · 57%
    ROI −10.7%
  • October 2026
    +1.4 pp
    183-111 · 62%
    ROI −1.8%

By league

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Erica Matthews (@ericamathews262) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 16 h before start
odds 1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 19 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks +3.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 19 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 19 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 19 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 20 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 22 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 22 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
-:-
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 22 h before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 22 h before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
-:-
LA Clippers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 03:56 · 22 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
-:-
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line
Parlay · 9posted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 12 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers +1.5✕
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Over 240.5✕
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
128:110
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers to win✓
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 6 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Como 1907
4:1
Manchester United
Manchester United +1.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 6 h before start
odds 2.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Lille
2:4
Galatasaray
Lille to win
Open on Xexpected 37% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 2.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Bayern Munich
2:2
Arsenal
Bayern Munich to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Aston Villa
3:1
Viking
Aston Villa to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 1.68DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Club Brugge
3:0
Lens
Club Brugge to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.68 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 1.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Sporting CP
2:3
LASK
Sporting CP to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 1.22DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
4:1
RB Leipzig
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line+0.22 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Inter
1:0
Shakhtar Donetsk
Inter to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:46 · 8 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Betis
1:0
Feyenoord
Real Betis to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 12 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.57 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 13 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets +8.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 13 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 13 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 13 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 13 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Over 231.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 14 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
128:110
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line+0.23 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 15 h before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 10:45 · 15 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns +9.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model