Won
Bundesliga·
VfB Stuttgart
2:3
Borussia M'gladbachBoth teams to score: yes
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FootballTennisHockeyBasketball
Hit rate
56.9%
expected 61.8%
Edge
−4.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 51.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
197
112-85
ROI
−9.7%
on 42 picks with odds · max drawdown −9.63 u
Average odds
1.94
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W10, worst L4
Wins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Football106-75 · 181 graded
−3.459%
Tennis4-6 · 10 graded
−21.040%
Hockey1-4 · 5 graded
−37.820%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+38.5100%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Totals47-38 · 85 graded
−6.255%
Double chance41-22 · 63 graded
−0.265%
Both teams to score23-22 · 45 graded
−8.051%
Match result1-3 · 4 graded
−16.025%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Favourite64-38 · 102 graded
−8.263%
Even45-43 · 88 graded
−2.551%
Underdog3-4 · 7 graded
+12.743%
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
1.50…1.8912-14 · 26 graded
−21.0%46%
1.90…2.296-6 · 12 graded
+2.1%50%
2.30…3.492-0 · 2 graded
-100%
3.50+0-2 · 2 graded
-0%
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 3 months with 5+ picks- August 2026−23.5 pp4-7 · 36%
- September 2026−4.2 pp43-33 · 57%ROI +4.2%
- October 2026−3.6 pp65-45 · 59%ROI −21.1%
By league
- UEFA Nations League26-1367%+2.8
- Bundesliga · Germany12-667%+5.8
- Ligue 1 · France8-850%−6.2
- Premier League · England9-660%+0.2
- Europa League6-843%−20.5
- LaLiga · Spain9-469%+8.0
- Africa Cup of Nations7-464%−2.9
- Conference League6-460%−2.5
- CONCACAF Nations League2-529%−34.0
- ATP 10003-260%−3.1
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Picks
Borussia M'gladbachWon
Eredivisie·
Cambuur
2:2
AZ AlkmaarUnder 4.5
Won
Eredivisie·
FC Groningen
2:5
AjaxOver 1.5
Lost
LaLiga·
Osasuna
2:0
Racing SantanderRacing Santander or draw
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
LaLiga·
Celta Vigo
2:1
Deportivo AlavesUnder 2.5
Won
LaLiga·
Real Madrid
4:1
SevillaBoth teams to score: yes
Lost
Serie A·
Fiorentina
1:3
Como 1907Under 3.5
Won
Serie A·
Juventus
0:3
LazioOver 1.5
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Ligue 1·
Lorient
1:0
AS MonacoUnder 2.5
Lost
Ligue 1·
Paris FC
4:3
RennesRennes or draw
Lost
Ligue 1·
Lyon
2:1
NiceNice or draw
Lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
SunderlandSunderland or draw
Won
Premier League·
Leeds United
1:1
Manchester UnitedBoth teams to score: yes
Won
Ligue 1·
Strasbourg
1:3
Paris Saint-GermainBoth teams to score: yes
Won
Ligue 1·
Troyes
1:3
LensBoth teams to score: yes
Won
Bundesliga·
Werder Bremen
2:2
PaderbornBoth teams to score: yes
Lost
Bundesliga·
Hamburger SV
1:0
VfB StuttgartBoth teams to score: yes
Won
Bundesliga·
Schalke 04
0:1
Mainz 05Mainz 05 or draw
Lost
Bundesliga·
Union Berlin
0:0
Borussia DortmundBoth teams to score: yes
Won
LaLiga·
Villarreal
0:0
ElcheUnder 4.5
odds 1.62DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Real Betis
2:5
BarcelonaOver 3.5
Won
LaLiga·
Valencia
0:0
Athletic ClubAthletic Club or draw
Won
Premier League·
Everton
0:2
ChelseaChelsea or draw
Won
Premier League·
Brentford
1:2
LiverpoolUnder 4.5
Lost
Premier League·
Newcastle United
0:1
Aston VillaNewcastle United or draw
Won
Championship·
Burnley
1:2
WolvesWolves or draw
Lost
Ligue 1·
Le Mans
0:3
ToulouseBoth teams to score: yes
Won
Bundesliga·
Eintracht Frankfurt
1:0
FC CologneUnder 4.5
Lost
Serie A·
Frosinone
4:2
SassuoloSassuolo or draw
Won
LaLiga·
Deportivo A Coruna
1:1
LevanteDeportivo A Coruna or draw