Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth: tipster picks, odds and form
Text written 5 Nov, 15:50, the numbers in the blocks stay live
AFC BournemouthWhat tipsters picked for Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth
Bournemouth have the tipsters almost to themselves. 16 of the 17 tipsters we tracked picked them to win, and nobody picked Sparta Prague. No tipster picked both sides.
The 17th, GeniusBrooks, made no pick on the winner, only that Bournemouth score at least once. 4 tipsters also picked both teams to score. In all, the 17 tipsters posted 39 picks on this match.
- AFC Bournemouth over 0.55
- AFC Bournemouth over 1.53
- Sparta Prague over 0.52
- Sparta Prague over 1.51
- AFC Bournemouth or draw2
Can you trust these tipsters?
The support is wide but not elite. None of the 16 Bournemouth backers is in the top 100 of our leaderboard. The best placed is carlaBets, at rank 123 of 803 ranked tipsters, and only 4 of them have an index above 55.
12 of those 16 have graded picks in the Europa League. Together they won 64.7% of 552 picks. That is slightly below the 65.7% expected from the odds and team strength, so as a group they have not beaten the baseline in this competition.
Individual records vary a lot. TheBeardWiz won 73% of 30 picks, well above the 59% expected. Live2Sport_com won 35% of 34, against 51% expected. AdamsSmith7w won all 4 picks, but 4 is far too small a sample to read anything into.
#12259.1
#12958.9
#19856.3
#23655.1
#24854.8
#26654.3
#28154.0
#28654.0
#29053.9
#31953.0
#37551.7
#41150.9
#41650.8
#42250.7
#47049.7
#51248.7
#52248.4
Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth odds
The bookmaker has Bournemouth as clear favourites. With its margin of about 5% removed, the price of 1.392 gives them a 68% chance to win. A draw comes out at about 19% and a Sparta Prague win at about 13%.
The prices have moved further towards Bournemouth. Their price opened at 1.588 and is now 1.392. Sparta Prague drifted from 5.0 to 7.5.
A price of 1.392 needs Bournemouth to win about 72% of the time just to break even. That is more than the 68% chance the price suggests once the margin is removed.
The goals line has gone up too, from 2.5 to 3.5. The bookmaker gives about a 40% chance of 4 or more goals.
| DraftKings | Open | Now | No margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague | 5.00 | 7.50 | 13% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 5.00 | 19% |
| AFC Bournemouth | 1.59 | 1.39 | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.5: 1.57 | 2.40 | 40% |
Form
Bournemouth come in with 5 straight wins and no goals conceded: 2-0 v Leeds United, 3-0 v Aston Villa in the EFL Cup, 3-0 away at Manchester United, 3-0 v AC Milan in the Europa League and 2-0 v Sunderland.
Sparta Prague have won 1 of their last 5: 0-0 at Bohemians, 0-2 at home to Banik Ostrava in the Cup, 5-1 v Slovacko, 0-1 at Olympiacos in the Europa League and 0-0 at Banik Ostrava. Across those 5 games they scored 5 and conceded 4.
Sparta Prague
- D0:0@ Bohemians 19051st League
- L0:2Banik OstravaCup
- W5:1Slovacko1st League
- L0:1@ OlympiacosEuropa League
- D0:0@ Banik Ostrava1st League
AFC Bournemouth
- W2:0Leeds UnitedPremier League
- W3:0Aston VillaEFL Cup
- W3:0@ Manchester UnitedPremier League
- W3:0AC MilanEuropa League
- W2:0SunderlandPremier League
How often is the majority right?
In the Europa League, the side most tipsters picked has won 66.7% of 67 matches we graded. That is a bit above the 63.8% expected. Across all competitions the figure is 64.3% of 6,770 matches, against 61.5% expected.
Winning often is not the same as making money. The majority usually picks the favourite, and favourites pay short prices. Across the 109,166 tipster picks we could grade with odds, the return was minus 3.4%, which is a loss.