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@StatsArena_295 followersfirst pick 14 Augusually posts 25 h before start

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Tipster index48.0#275 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Open picks 4

Games not played yet

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:20

Jiri Lehecka

live

Rafael Jodar

Jiri Lehecka +1.5 sets@1.60

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:30

Stefanos Tsitsipas

live

Taylor Fritz

Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5@1.80

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 07:45

Daniil Medvedev

-:-

Dalibor Svrcina

Daniil Medvedev −3.5@1.50

Süper Lig·12 Oct, 17:00

Eyupspor

-:-

Goztepe

Goztepe draw no bet@1.40

Hit rate

62.1%

expected 63.3%

Edge

−1.2 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 55.5%, the edge is within noise

Graded

162

97-59-6 · 4 pending

ROI

+3.7%

on 96 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.50 u

Average odds

1.61

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W12, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football83-48-6 · 137 graded

−1.2

63%

Tennis14-11 · 25 graded

−1.1

56%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap30-22-6 · 58 graded

−8.6

57%

Totals39-18 · 57 graded

+4.0

68%

Match result18-15 · 33 graded

−1.9

55%

Double chance10-3 · 13 graded

+10.1

77%

Parlays0-1 · 1 graded

−42.2

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite76-31-3 · 110 graded

+1.3

71%

Even21-18-3 · 42 graded

−0.7

54%

Underdog0-9 · 9 graded

−28.1

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5031-9 · 40 graded

+7.2%

78%

1.50…1.8930-13-2 · 45 graded

+9.3%

70%

1.90…2.292-4-1 · 7 graded

−26.4%

33%

2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded

50%

3.50+0-2 · 2 graded

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
−53.1 pp
0-3 · 0%
September 2026
−0.5 pp
55-34-3 · 62%
ROI +9.2%
October 2026
+0.3 pp
42-22-3 · 65%
ROI +1.6%

By league

UEFA Nations League27-13-368%+2.4
Premier League · England11-1345%−20.1
ATP 100010-377%+14.4
LaLiga · Spain9-282%+8.4
Champions League4-3-257%−3.5
Ligue 1 · France4-3-157%−12.2
Serie A · Italy4-357%−10.5
ATP Challenger2-433%−13.9
Belgian Pro League · Belgium4-180%+18.2
US Open1-325%−23.3

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:59 · 6 h before start

odds 1.30Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 04:10

Pablo Carreno Busta

1:2

Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime to win@1.30

Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:59 · 8 h before start

odds 1.60Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:20

Jiri Lehecka

live

Rafael Jodar

Jiri Lehecka +1.5 sets@1.60

Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:59 · 10 h before start

odds 1.50Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 07:45

Daniil Medvedev

-:-

Dalibor Svrcina

Daniil Medvedev −3.5@1.50

Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:59 · 9 h before start

odds 1.80Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:30

Stefanos Tsitsipas

live

Taylor Fritz

Stefanos Tsitsipas +2.5@1.80

Singleposted 11 Oct, 17:03 · 24 h before start

odds 1.40Pending

Süper Lig·12 Oct, 17:00

Eyupspor

-:-

Goztepe

Goztepe draw no bet@1.40

Singleposted 10 Oct, 21:59 · 6 h before start

odds 1.40Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 04:10

Karen Khachanov

2:0

Adrian Mannarino

Karen Khachanov to win@1.40

Singleposted 10 Oct, 21:59 · 8 h before start

odds 1.40Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 05:55

Alex de Minaur

2:0

Rei Sakamoto

Alex de Minaur to win@1.40

Singleposted 10 Oct, 21:59 · 15 h before start

odds 1.60Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 12:50

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2:1

Frances Tiafoe

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +2.5@1.60

Singleposted 10 Oct, 21:59 · 12 h before start

odds 1.70Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 10:10

Alexander Bublik

2:1

Brandon Nakashima

Alexander Bublik +2.5@1.70

Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:03 · 20 h before start

odds 1.50Lost

Serie A·11 Oct, 13:00

Lazio

3:1

Monza

Monza +1.5@1.50

Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:03 · 21 h before start

odds 1.40Lost

Belgian Pro League·11 Oct, 14:00

Union St.Gilloise

1:1

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

Union St.Gilloise −1@1.40

Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:03 · 26 h before start

odds 1.40Lost

Ligue 1·11 Oct, 18:45

Troyes

0:2

Marseille

Troyes +1.5@1.40

Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:59 · 13 h before start

odds 1.40Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·10 Oct, 10:40

Luciano Darderi

0:2

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@1.40

Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:59 · 6 h before start

odds 1.60Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·10 Oct, 04:10

Thiago Agustin Tirante

1:2

Rafael Jodar

Thiago Agustin Tirante +4.5@1.60

Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:59 · 14 h before start

odds 1.70Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·10 Oct, 11:45

Botic van de Zandschulp

2:0

Alex Michelsen

Botic van de Zandschulp +3.5@1.70

Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:59 · 6 h before start

odds 1.60Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·10 Oct, 04:10

Daniil Medvedev

2:1

Jan-Lennard Struff

Daniil Medvedev −3.5@1.60

Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:03 · 21 h before start

odds 1.40Won

LaLiga·10 Oct, 14:15

Deportivo Alaves

1:2

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid draw no bet@1.40

Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:03 · 26 h before start

odds 1.40Won

LaLiga·10 Oct, 19:00

Real Madrid

1:0

Villarreal

Villarreal +2.5@1.40

Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:03 · 21 h before start

odds 1.50Lost

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Chelsea

5:1

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth +1.5@1.50

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 2 days before start

Won

Premier League·11 Oct, 15:30

Liverpool

0:3

Manchester City

Manchester City +4.49

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 23 h before start

Won

Premier League·10 Oct, 11:30

Arsenal

2:1

Leeds United

Arsenal +4.47

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 26 h before start

Won

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Aston Villa

2:2

Brentford

Brentford +2.9

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 2 days before start

Lost

Premier League·11 Oct, 15:30

Liverpool

0:3

Manchester City

Liverpool +2.6

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 26 h before start

Won

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Sunderland

0:2

Brighton

Brighton +2.25

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 2 days before start

Half won

Premier League·11 Oct, 13:00

Crystal Palace

3:1

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest +2.14

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 26 h before start

Lost

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Chelsea

5:1

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth +1.47

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 26 h before start

Lost

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Sunderland

0:2

Brighton

Sunderland +1.33

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 26 h before start

Lost

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Ipswich Town

2:1

Fulham

Fulham +0.5

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 23 h before start

Lost

Premier League·10 Oct, 11:30

Arsenal

2:1

Leeds United

Leeds United +0.26

Singleposted 9 Oct, 12:29 · 2 days before start

Lost

Premier League·11 Oct, 13:00

Hull City

2:2

Everton

Everton −0.67