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BranFranDFS

@BFDPicks298 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 5 h before start

#1 upcoming capper💯 Free Premium Discord!: https://t.co/ZnR5C0xAtf

TennisBaseballFootballHockeyNFL & NCAAFBasketball
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Tipster index48.0#484 on the leaderboarddown 14 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
54.0%
expected 55.4%
Edge
−1.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
74
40-34
ROI
−12.4%
on 52 picks with odds · max drawdown −8.74 u
Average odds
1.72
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W5, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-2031 Jul23 Aug14 Sept6 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Tennis12-13 · 25 graded
−7.1
48%
Baseball14-11 · 25 graded
+0.8
56%
Football8-3 · 11 graded
+14.5
73%
Hockey2-4 · 6 graded
−19.9
33%
NFL & NCAAF3-2 · 5 graded
+6.8
60%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−8.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap21-16 · 37 graded
+1.2
57%
Match result13-13 · 26 graded
−6.8
50%
Totals6-5 · 11 graded
+2.8
55%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-9 · 20 graded
−9.0
55%
Even28-24 · 52 graded
+0.4
54%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+29.0
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.50…1.8922-18 · 40 graded
−9.3%
55%
1.90…2.294-6 · 10 graded
−21.4%
40%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −7.8 pp
    14-14 · 50%
    ROI −23.8%
  • September 2026
    +7.8 pp
    19-12 · 61%
    ROI +2.7%
  • October 2026
    −8.4 pp
    7-8 · 47%
    ROI −18.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 19:59 · 4 h before start
odds 1.65Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 19:58 · 3 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
109:114
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers −4.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 19:54 · 4 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:2
Philadelphia Flyers
Washington Capitals −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.05 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 07:05 · 10 h before start
odds 1.56Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Cameron Norrie
2:0
Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco Cerundolo −1.5 sets@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:21 · 38 min before start
odds 1.53Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
125:114
Phoenix Suns
Under 230.5@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:14 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys −2.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:08 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 05:01 · 8 h before start
odds 1.77Void
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Ekaterina Alexandrova
void
Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:44 · 16 min before start
odds 2.10Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche −1.5@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:22 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 49.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:19 · 3 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Minnesota Wild
2:1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 04:05 · 6 h before start
Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Daniil Medvedev
2:1
Tommy Paul
Daniil Medvedev −1.5 sets
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:21 · 8 h before start
odds 1.99DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:3
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.99 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:18 · 6 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Spain
3:1
Czechia
Spain −2.5
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:16 · 12 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
2:1
Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:13 · 11 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boise State Broncos
37:18
Utah State Aggies
Boise State Broncos −15.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 20:48 · 5 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
5:6
Vancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:43 · 16 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
33:31
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 00:22 · 18 min before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLB·
San Diego Padres
10:7
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 21:45 · 55 min before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
6:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 17:12 · 28 min before start
odds 1.95Lost
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
1:0
Athletics
Cleveland Guardians −1.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 13:52 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Won
Serie A·
Venezia
0:2
Lazio
Lazio to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 22:26 · 39 min before start
odds 1.65Won
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
5:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 14:59 · 2 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Real Betis
1:0
Getafe
Real Betis to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.51 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 14:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
10:1
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays −1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 17:04 · 7 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
3:10
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 14:28 · 4 h before start
odds 1.77Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:1
Ben Shelton
Alexander Zverev to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 11:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.67Won
Bundesliga·
Freiburg
5:0
Borussia M'gladbach
Freiburg to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 23:00 · 3 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
5:7
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 22:56 · 49 min before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
1:3
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton −1.5 sets
Open on Xexpected 54% by model