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Pato Picks

@PatoPicksMx532 followersfirst pick 4 Octusually posts 51 min before start

Apuestas Ganadoras | Experto en apuestas deportivas 📈 | Análisis en tiempo real 📊| Pronósticos deportivos diarios

NFL & NCAAFFootball
CompareRSS
Tipster index55.3#117 on the leaderboarddown 60 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
55.2%
expected 49.8%
Edge
+5.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
29
16-13
ROI
+5.8%
on 28 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.41 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W7, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0123 Oct5 Oct7 Oct9 Oct12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF14-11 · 25 graded
+5.7
56%
Football2-2 · 4 graded
+3.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals8-6 · 14 graded
+6.2
57%
Handicap5-4 · 9 graded
+2.8
56%
Match result2-2 · 4 graded
+5.2
50%
Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded
+45.3
100%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−20.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even16-11 · 27 graded
+8.0
59%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−37.5
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8912-7 · 19 graded
+13.7%
63%
1.90…2.294-4 · 8 graded
+0.3%
50%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +5.4 pp
    16-13 · 55%
    ROI +5.8%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 3posted 11 Oct, 23:31 · 48 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +10.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Under 49.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Under 44.5@1.83✕
Open on Xexpected 21% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:41 · 44 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:41 · 44 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Over 54.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 18:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Los Angeles Chargers +3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 18:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Over 41.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:31 · 28 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:31 · 28 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:31 · 28 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:01 · 58 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Over 46.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:01 · 58 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Under 41.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:01 · 58 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
13:23
Minnesota Vikings
Over 41.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:35 · 1 h before start
odds 1.76Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −6.5@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:35 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 43.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 05:21 · 8 h before start
odds 1.64Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars −6.5@1.64
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 05:21 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Under 41.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 00:15 · 3 h before start
odds 2.28Lost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Tigres
3:2
Toluca
Toluca to win@2.28
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 18:23 · 21 min before start
odds 2.54Lost
Ligue 1·
Lens
2:1
Lyon
Lyon to win@2.54
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 18:23 · 51 min before start
odds 1.74Won
Primeira Liga·
SC Braga
1:3
Sporting CP
Both teams to score: yes@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 18:03 · 27 min before start
odds 1.81Won
Bundesliga·
Borussia Dortmund
2:2
Werder Bremen
Over 2.5@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:59 · 26 min before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 42.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:59 · 26 min before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Over 47.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:36 · 29 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
15:10
Miami Dolphins
Under 38.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:36 · 49 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
Under 48.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:38 · 22 min before start
odds 2.25Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.25 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:38 · 22 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 51.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:08 · 51 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills −6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:08 · 51 min before start
odds 1.65Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:08 · 51 min before start
odds 1.73Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −3@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 03:58 · 10 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Over 46.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u