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@dg23sportsguru102 followersfirst pick 28 Octusually posts 6 h before start

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TennisNFL & NCAAFFootball
Tipster index57.4needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
71.4%
expected 51.9%
Edge
+19.5 pp
over expectation
Graded
7
5-2
ROI
-
on 2 picks with odds
Average odds
1.33
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511.529 Oct31 Oct1 Nov3 Nov4 Nov

By sport

Tennis4-0 · 4 graded
+57.1
100%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−24.7
50%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−42.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-1 · 4 graded
+7.2
75%
Parlays2-1 · 3 graded
+35.8
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-1 · 4 graded
+7.2
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

  • October 2026
    +49.8 pp
    4-0 · 100%
  • November 2026
    −21.0 pp
    1-2 · 33%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 06:09 · 6 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Tommy Paul
2:0
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Tommy Paul to win
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Parlay · 6posted 3 Nov, 16:40 · 3 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Bodoe/Glimt
0:0
Lille
Over 1.5✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
3:2
AS Roma
Over 1.5✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Villarreal
0:6
Paris Saint-Germain
Over 1.5✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Atletico Madrid
0:2
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich +1.5✓
Champions League · League Stage·
LASK
4:0
Slovan Bratislava
Over 1.5✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
3:2
AS Roma
AS Roma over 0.5✓
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 2 Nov, 12:46 · 12 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
17:34
Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 08:04 · 7 h before start
Won
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Tommy Paul
0:2
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz to win
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 18:56 · 3 days before start
odds 1.07DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
31:3
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Texas Longhorns to win
Open on Xexpected 89% from the closing line+0.07 u
Parlay · 2posted 28 Oct, 18:49 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Hubert Hurkacz
1:2
Holger Rune
Holger Rune +1.5 sets✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
21:28
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines to win✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Parlay · 2posted 28 Oct, 18:49 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Hubert Hurkacz
1:2
Holger Rune
Holger Rune +1.5 sets✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
27:20
Arizona State Sun Devils
BYU Cougars to win✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model