Dan Karpuc

@DanielKarpuc5.9K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 11 h before start

Building things at @trendscenterapp 🚀

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockey

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Tipster index50.9#208 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet

NHL · NHL: Regular season·12 Oct, 17:00

Buffalo Sabres

-:-

Florida Panthers

Florida Panthers to win

NFL · Regular Season·13 Oct, 00:15

Los Angeles Rams

-:-

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills to win@2.50

NFL · Regular Season·13 Oct, 00:15

Los Angeles Rams

-:-

Buffalo Bills

Los Angeles Rams −3.5

Hit rate

52.6%

expected 52.0%

Edge

+0.6 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.3%, the edge is within noise

Graded

51-46-1 · 3 pending

ROI

−0.6%

on 28 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.13 u

Average odds

2.03

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W5, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Baseball27-19-1 · 47 graded

+5.3

59%

NFL & NCAAF19-23 · 42 graded

−3.9

45%

Hockey5-4 · 9 graded

−2.8

56%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result28-22 · 50 graded

+1.9

56%

Totals11-10-1 · 22 graded

−1.8

52%

Handicap11-10 · 21 graded

+3.3

52%

Parlays1-4 · 5 graded

−14.5

20%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite9-13 · 22 graded

−23.7

41%

Even35-23 · 58 graded

+8.0

60%

Underdog6-6-1 · 13 graded

+15.3

50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-2 · 2 graded

1.50…1.896-5 · 11 graded

−8.3%

55%

1.90…2.294-4 · 8 graded

−4.0%

50%

2.30…3.492-2 · 4 graded

50%

3.50+1-0 · 1 graded

100%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
+3.7 pp
19-16 · 54%
ROI +11.2%
September 2026
+1.4 pp
23-19-1 · 55%
ROI −7.4%
October 2026
−6.7 pp
9-11 · 45%
ROI −6.7%

By league

MLB · USA26-19-158%+4.0
NCAAF13-1154%+2.0
NFL6-940%−6.5
NHL5-456%−2.8

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:27 · 25 h before start

odds 2.50Pending

NFL · Regular Season·13 Oct, 00:15

Los Angeles Rams

-:-

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills to win@2.50

Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:14 · 18 h before start

Pending

NHL · NHL: Regular season·12 Oct, 17:00

Buffalo Sabres

-:-

Florida Panthers

Florida Panthers to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:51 · 6 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:25

Arizona Cardinals

21:45

Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions −5.5

Parlay · 2posted 11 Oct, 00:19 · 17 h before start

odds 1.80Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 17:00

Green Bay Packers

31:7

Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears −2.5✕

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 17:00

New Orleans Saints

13:23

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings to win✓

Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:46 · 24 h before start

odds 1.91Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 19:30

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

28:25

Duke Blue Devils

Duke Blue Devils −6.5@1.91

Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:46 · 24 h before start

odds 1.91Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 19:30

Oregon Ducks

15:17

UCLA Bruins

UCLA Bruins +12.5@1.91

Singleposted 9 Oct, 14:43 · 2 days before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 17:00

New York Jets

17:12

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns +2

Singleposted 9 Oct, 14:43 · 3 days before start

Pending

NFL · Regular Season·13 Oct, 00:15

Los Angeles Rams

-:-

Buffalo Bills

Los Angeles Rams −3.5

Singleposted 9 Oct, 14:33 · 9 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·10 Oct, 00:00

Winnipeg Jets

1:5

Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks to win

Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:39 · 9 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·8 Oct, 23:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

3:2

Minnesota Wild

Tampa Bay Lightning to win

Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:49 · 10 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·8 Oct, 02:00

Anaheim Ducks

2:5

Edmonton Oilers

Over 6.5

Singleposted 7 Oct, 13:54 · 3 days before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 20:15

Ohio State Buckeyes

45:16

Maryland Terrapins

Ohio State Buckeyes −34.5

Singleposted 6 Oct, 20:01 · 2 h before start

odds 1.95Won

MLB · post-season·6 Oct, 22:00

Atlanta Braves

1:3

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.95

Singleposted 6 Oct, 17:32 · 6 h before start

odds 1.91Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·7 Oct, 00:00

Troy State Trojans

55:34

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Troy State Trojans −10.5@1.91

Singleposted 6 Oct, 17:32 · 29 h before start

odds 1.69Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·7 Oct, 23:00

Kennesaw State Owls

26:27

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win@1.69

Singleposted 6 Oct, 17:32 · 4 days before start

odds 1.95Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·10 Oct, 16:00

Nebraska Cornhuskers

17:20

Indiana Hoosiers

Nebraska Cornhuskers to win@1.95

Singleposted 6 Oct, 11:37 · 11 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·6 Oct, 23:00

Montreal Canadiens

4:6

Carolina Hurricanes

Under 6.5

Singleposted 5 Oct, 00:26 · 23 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·5 Oct, 23:30

Boston Bruins

1:4

Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators to win

Parlay · 4posted 3 Oct, 23:10 · 18 h before start

odds 1.77Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Cincinnati Bengals

17:22

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals to win✕

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14:17

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers −3.5✕

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Philadelphia Eagles

20:24

Los Angeles Rams

Los Angeles Rams −3.5✓

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Houston Texans

30:34

Dallas Cowboys

Under 48.5✕

Parlay · 3posted 3 Oct, 02:25 · 14 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 16:00

Air Force Falcons

14:9

Navy Midshipmen

Over 45.5✕

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 16:00

North Carolina Tar Heels

26:37

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

North Carolina Tar Heels +21.5✓

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·3 Oct, 20:00

Nebraska Cornhuskers

48:23

Maryland Terrapins

Nebraska Cornhuskers −14.5✓

Singleposted 2 Oct, 13:24 · 9 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·2 Oct, 22:30

Detroit Red Wings

0:2

New York Rangers

Over 5.5

Singleposted 1 Oct, 14:11 · 9 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·1 Oct, 23:00

New York Rangers

5:1

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning to win

Singleposted 1 Oct, 03:24 · 20 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·1 Oct, 23:00

New Jersey Devils

3:2

Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia Flyers to win

Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:20 · 9 h before start

Won

NHL · NHL: Regular season·30 Sept, 00:00

Boston Bruins

3:0

New York Rangers

Boston Bruins to win

Singleposted 28 Sept, 17:34 · 7 h before start

odds 1.48Lost

NFL · Regular Season·29 Sept, 00:15

Chicago Bears

27:7

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles to win@1.48

Singleposted 27 Sept, 10:14 · 8 h before start

Won

MLB·27 Sept, 18:30

Philadelphia Phillies

7:3

Tampa Bay Rays

Philadelphia Phillies to win

Singleposted 26 Sept, 12:13 · 5 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 17:30

Maryland Terrapins

3:54

UCLA Bruins

UCLA Bruins to win

Singleposted 26 Sept, 12:13 · 11 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 23:00

Alabama Crimson Tide

49:18

South Carolina Gamecocks

Over 53.5

Singleposted 26 Sept, 12:13 · 11 h before start

Won

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·26 Sept, 23:30

Washington State Cougars

24:34

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona Wildcats −9.5

Singleposted 23 Sept, 22:03 · 26 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·25 Sept, 00:15

Green Bay Packers

14:35

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons +5.5