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LjfromHTown

@Ljsportsmedia1.7K followersfirst pick 15 Augusually posts 5 h before start

LjfromHtown 🤘🏿Host RaWordz Podcast|contributor to @Pubsportsradio|sports consultant|Stat guru| Daily picks |Cash app $Ljsportshtown|#Getmoneygang💸💰

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index47.5needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
42.9%
expected 49.4%
Edge
−6.6 pp
over expectation
Graded
8
3-4-1
ROI
-
on 2 picks with odds
Average odds
2.01
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.514 Aug3 Sept23 Sept13 Oct1 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF2-2-1 · 5 graded
+5.9
50%
Baseball1-1 · 2 graded
−6.8
50%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−55.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-2-1 · 5 graded
+2.3
50%
Match result0-2 · 2 graded
−48.5
0%
Totals1-0 · 1 graded
+41.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even3-4-1 · 8 graded
−6.6
43%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +41.9 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • September 2026
    −55.6 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • October 2026
    +2.7 pp
    2-2-1 · 50%
  • November 2026
    −43.0 pp
    0-1 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 1 Nov, 18:30 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
19:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots −6.5
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:04 · 3 h before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions −3
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:04 · 7 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:14 · 6 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
120:128
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers −8.5
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:57 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots −6.5
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:58 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
13:23
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings −1
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 11:07 · 13 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
MLB·
Houston Astros
2:5
Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Aug, 08:43 · 14 h before start
Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
5:10
Seattle Mariners
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 58% by model