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Betology Sports

@BetologySports478 followersfirst pick 8 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Specializing in MLB, CFB, & CBB sports betting analysis. Breakdowns with each pick in Discord Data-science backed predictions

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index45.8#564 on the leaderboardup 53 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
43.8%
expected 49.8%
Edge
−6.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 25.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
16
7-9
ROI
−10.6%
on 15 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.00 u
Average odds
1.97
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W3, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1017 Aug28 Aug17 Sept8 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF2-6 · 8 graded
−24.3
25%
Baseball5-3 · 8 graded
+12.3
63%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals5-3 · 8 graded
+10.5
63%
Team totals1-2 · 3 graded
−18.5
33%
Handicap0-2 · 2 graded
−48.1
0%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
+9.4
50%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−47.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded
−63.5
0%
Even7-6 · 13 graded
+3.7
54%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−32.8
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-4 · 6 graded
−38.8%
33%
1.90…2.295-2 · 7 graded
+39.1%
71%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +12.3 pp
    5-3 · 63%
    ROI +19.3%
  • September 2026
    −49.1 pp
    0-3 · 0%
  • October 2026
    −9.4 pp
    2-3 · 40%
    ROI −22.8%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 17:09 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
New Mexico State Aggies
0:24
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Under 49.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:15 · 4 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
16:19
Duke Blue Devils
Under 46.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:12 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 41.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 8 Oct, 21:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Liberty Flames
35:3
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5@1.91✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Liberty Flames
35:3
Sam Houston State Bearkats
Under 52.5@1.91✓
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:50 · 10 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Under 54.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 19:37 · 23 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Duke Blue Devils
35:7
Stanford Cardinal
Over 51.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 5 Sept, 15:48 · 12 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
20:13
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames +6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 15:48 · 12 min before start
odds 2.90Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
James Madison Dukes
20:13
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames to win@2.90
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Aug, 19:26 · 18 min before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
9:10
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds under 3.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Aug, 19:49 · 6 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
5:0
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds −1.5@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Aug, 19:48 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
4:1
Miami Marlins
Under 9@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 15 Aug, 19:41 · 3 h before start
odds 1.97Won
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
4:8
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins to win@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.97 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 21:38 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
4:5
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds under 3.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 21:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
New York Yankees
4:1
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners under 3.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 21:38 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
2:0
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 7.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 8 Aug, 18:46 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB·
Miami Marlins
7:0
Los Angeles Angels
Under 7.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u