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GAMBLEMAX

@GAMBLEMAXX81 followersfirst pick 7 Septusually posts 46 min before start

Fade the public money 48-37 +9.9 units

NFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseball
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Tipster index45.2#491 on the leaderboarddown 253 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
48.1%
expected 53.2%
Edge
−5.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 33.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
27
13-14
ROI
+9.5%
on 17 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.00 u
Average odds
1.96
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W6, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1016 Sept18 Sept29 Sept11 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF12-13 · 25 graded
−5.2
48%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−53.3
0%
Baseball1-0 · 1 graded
+46.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap9-8 · 17 graded
−3.2
53%
Match result4-6 · 10 graded
−8.2
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-6 · 8 graded
−39.8
25%
Even11-8 · 19 graded
+9.6
58%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-1 · 6 graded
+48.7%
83%
1.90…2.295-5 · 10 graded
−3.1%
50%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +2.5 pp
    10-8 · 56%
    ROI +34.8%
  • October 2026
    −20.2 pp
    3-6 · 33%
    ROI −37.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:57 · 2 min before start
odds 2.32Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Delaware Blue Hens
61:38
Missouri State Bears
Missouri State Bears to win@2.32
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 16:49 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 19:28 · 1 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
34:24
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:13 · 46 min before start
odds 2.24Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers to win@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:13 · 46 min before start
odds 2.10Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Army Black Knights
56:24
Florida Atlantic Owls
Florida Atlantic Owls to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:39 · 3 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio State Buckeyes
45:16
Maryland Terrapins
Maryland Terrapins +31.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:39 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UNLV Rebels
13:7
North Dakota State Bison
UNLV Rebels +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 23:02 · 14 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 28 Sept, 00:00 · 20 min before start
odds 1.98Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 22:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
49:18
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:19 · 11 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Michigan Wolverines −5.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:19 · 11 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Florida Gators −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:19 · 11 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
41:13
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners +13.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:58 · 1 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
23:13
Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado Buffaloes +9.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 20:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
29:23
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats +20.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 22:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 22:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
33:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 20:03 · 2 min before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
20:13
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:56 · 3 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
3:9
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings +4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:56 · 3 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:23
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 21:11 · 2 h before start
odds 2.23Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Maryland Terrapins
26:35
Virginia Tech Hokies
Maryland Terrapins to win@2.23
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 21:11 · 2 h before start
odds 2.13Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
39:44
Florida Gators
Auburn Tigers to win@2.13
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 21:59 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.73 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 23:45 · 25 min before start
odds 1.79Won
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
2:6
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 23:45 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah Utes
43:10
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas Razorbacks +12.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 20:59 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida State Seminoles
24:27
SMU Mustangs
Florida State Seminoles +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model