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Uncle Phil

@unclephilslocks40.3K followersfirst pick 5 Septusually posts 1 h before start

Sports Handicapper • 40 years experience • Creator of the original Notebook • Business inquiries collabs@unclephilslocks.com • Gamble at your own risk

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index47.4#473 on the leaderboarddown 69 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
48.1%
expected 50.9%
Edge
−2.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 33.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
27
13-14
ROI
+9.7%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.11 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W5, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10124 Sept17 Sept30 Sept13 Oct25 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF13-14 · 27 graded
−2.8
48%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap7-9 · 16 graded
−6.1
44%
Totals3-4 · 7 graded
−12.4
43%
Team totals2-0 · 2 graded
+43.2
100%
Parlays1-1 · 2 graded
+11.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-2 · 4 graded
−17.1
50%
Even10-10 · 20 graded
+0.5
50%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−38.8
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +19.5 pp
    9-4 · 69%
    ROI +15.2%
  • October 2026
    −23.4 pp
    4-10 · 29%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:29 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
21:27
New York Giants
Houston Texans −10.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:29 · 5 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
21:35
Los Angeles Rams
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 15:03 · 56 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
6:13
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers under 25.5
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:52 · 27 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys −1
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:54 · 1 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:54 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Under 39.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 13:18 · 12 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Under 42
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:08 · 52 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Under 50.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:58 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans +7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:58 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +2
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:10 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Over 58.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:10 · 26 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans −13.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:40 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs −4.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:03 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
38:14
Vanderbilt Commodores
Under 50.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 28 Sept, 00:17 · 3 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
30:26
Los Angeles Rams
Denver Broncos +1
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:13 · 46 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:24
New York Jets
Detroit Lions −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:13 · 46 min before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
35:6
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars −3
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:07 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels over 27.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:07 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
27:41
Oregon Ducks
Over 61.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 24 Sept, 23:45 · 29 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +4.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Under 43✕
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 23:46 · 34 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
33:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +6
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:05 · 54 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
3:34
Carolina Panthers
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:05 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
37:20
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys −4
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:05 · 55 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
20:13
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:05 · 4 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 9 Sept, 23:28 · 51 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks −3↺
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Under 44.5✓
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 5 Sept, 15:09 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
34:27
Boise State Broncos
Oregon Ducks −24.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u