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Reuben O

@Prediction_Eng216 followersfirst pick 13 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Powered by Prediction Engine. We will continue to give game and player analysis / breakdowns throughout the NBA, MLB, NFL, and NHL seasons.

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseball
Tipster index42.7#361 on the leaderboarddown 63 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
50.8%
expected 56.1%
Edge
−5.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
65
33-32
ROI
+11.9%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.00 u
Average odds
2.46
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W7, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2012 Aug27 Aug11 Sept26 Sept12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF16-17 · 33 graded
−5.2
48%
Hockey13-11 · 24 graded
−4.8
54%
Baseball4-4 · 8 graded
−7.3
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result22-17 · 39 graded
−0.0
56%
Totals6-8 · 14 graded
−16.9
43%
Handicap5-7 · 12 graded
−9.0
42%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite16-12 · 28 graded
−9.1
57%
Even15-11 · 26 graded
+3.1
58%
Underdog2-9 · 11 graded
−15.4
18%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
2.30…3.492-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −64.8 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • September 2026
    +1.0 pp
    5-4 · 56%
  • October 2026
    −5.3 pp
    28-27 · 51%
    ROI +11.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:10 · 50 min before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:08 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Atlanta Falcons to win
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 18:47 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 18:47 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Over 41.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:20 · 39 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:20 · 39 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:44 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:44 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Under 45.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:29 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:29 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
Over 39.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:26 · 1 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:26 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Over 41.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:03 · 4 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 19:40 · 2 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Florida Panthers
1:4
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild +1.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 19:24 · 36 min before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
1:3
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 19:24 · 36 min before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
1:3
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 72% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 19:14 · 16 min before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:1
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Canucks +1.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 20:04 · 4 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 20:04 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys +8.5
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 17:14 · 7 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 22:09 · 1 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 21:43 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 17:57 · 4 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:46 · 5 h before start
odds 2.05Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 21:35 · 3 h before start
odds 2.50Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 21:35 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
32:26
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:33 · 2 h before start
odds 2.80Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:33 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Las Vegas Raiders −4.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:30 · 2 h before start
odds 1.68Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers to win@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:30 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model