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The Line Cook

@LineCookBets96 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 7 h before start

I bet on sports. Occasionally cook. 👨🏻‍🍳

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index48.7#434 on the leaderboarddown 32 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 51.1%
Edge
−1.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 37.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
38
19-19
ROI
−4.1%
on 27 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.23 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W4, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-101 Aug22 Aug13 Sept4 Oct26 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF10-8 · 18 graded
+5.8
56%
Baseball8-9 · 17 graded
−5.5
47%
Basketball1-2 · 3 graded
−18.2
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result13-10 · 23 graded
+4.1
57%
Handicap3-7 · 10 graded
−16.9
30%
Totals3-2 · 5 graded
+6.1
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded
−62.1
0%
Even19-18 · 37 graded
+0.5
51%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8910-7 · 17 graded
+3.5%
59%
1.90…2.294-5 · 9 graded
−7.9%
44%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −11.1 pp
    11-16 · 41%
    ROI −10.9%
  • September 2026
    +31.4 pp
    4-1 · 80%
  • October 2026
    +16.4 pp
    4-2 · 67%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 23:41 · 38 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 14:31 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 14:31 · 8 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks −4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 14:31 · 11 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 14:43 · 10 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Under 40.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 14:43 · 10 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 16:15 · 44 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
20:3
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 13:26 · 11 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills −4.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:29 · 7 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:23
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:29 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:23
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns −1.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 17:14 · 21 min before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
6:4
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 28 Aug, 17:45 · 8 h before start
odds 2.01DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Athletics
3:4
Baltimore Orioles
Athletics to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Aug, 18:37 · 5 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
1:0
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 14:00 · 3 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Preseason·
Cleveland Browns
7:31
Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns −2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 14:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Preseason·
New England Patriots
24:21
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 14:00 · 3 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Preseason·
Minnesota Vikings
3:13
Baltimore Ravens
Minnesota Vikings to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 13:57 · 4 h before start
odds 1.94DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
New York Yankees
3:4
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.94 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 16:25 · 7 h before start
odds 2.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Preseason·
Pittsburgh Steelers
0:17
New York Jets
New York Jets to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line+1.24 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 16:25 · 7 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Preseason·
Jacksonville Jaguars
17:34
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 21 Aug, 16:25 · 9 h before start
Lost
NFL · Preseason·
Denver Broncos
13:33
Green Bay Packers
Denver Broncos −5.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 20 Aug, 18:03 · 6 min before start
Lost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
6:2
Athletics
Over 8.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 20 Aug, 16:53 · 7 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Preseason·
Houston Texans
20:22
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 20 Aug, 16:53 · 9 h before start
Lost
NFL · Preseason·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:41
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 19 Aug, 14:29 · 8 h before start
odds 2.04DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:6
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Aug, 14:36 · 8 h before start
odds 1.77DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:10
Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Aug, 16:56 · 6 h before start
Won
MLB·
New York Mets
2:1
San Diego Padres
Under 8.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 14 Aug, 14:17 · 9 h before start
Lost
NFL · Preseason·
New York Jets
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Jets −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 13 Aug, 15:35 · 8 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Preseason·
Houston Texans
7:27
Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 15:18 · 8 h before start
odds 1.77DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
New York Yankees
4:1
Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.77 u
Singleposted 10 Aug, 15:57 · 8 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
5:6
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u