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tkb picks

@tkbpicks3K followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 13 h before start

🎯 3 free picks, every game, every day across 🏟️ nfl | nba | mlb | nhl | cfb | tennis 📩 biz inq: dm or tkbpicks@gmail.com 💰 every book's bonus in one place👇

BaseballBasketballNFL & NCAAFTennisFootballHockey
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Tipster index42.1#540 on the leaderboarddown 27 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
47.3%
expected 52.5%
Edge
−5.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 38.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
91
43-48
ROI
−19.2%
on 77 picks with odds · max drawdown −16.86 u
Average odds
1.81
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W7, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-7.5-5-2.502 Aug21 Aug9 Sept28 Sept16 Oct

By sport

Baseball30-33 · 63 graded
−6.3
48%
Basketball6-5 · 11 graded
+1.3
55%
Tennis3-3 · 6 graded
+6.7
50%
NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
+3.0
50%
Football1-2 · 3 graded
−28.4
33%
Hockey0-2 · 2 graded
−34.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result29-33 · 62 graded
−7.6
47%
Handicap7-7 · 14 graded
−4.4
50%
Totals4-4 · 8 graded
+0.7
50%
Parlays2-4 · 6 graded
+4.9
33%
Team totals1-0 · 1 graded
+17.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-6 · 17 graded
−3.8
65%
Even30-35 · 65 graded
−6.3
46%
Underdog0-3 · 3 graded
−10.3
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.50…1.8922-25 · 47 graded
−19.1%
47%
1.90…2.298-13 · 21 graded
−23.7%
38%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −8.0 pp
    25-29 · 46%
    ROI −21.0%
  • September 2026
    −2.8 pp
    16-18 · 47%
    ROI −16.0%
  • October 2026
    +15.6 pp
    2-1 · 67%

By league

  • MLB · USA30-3248%−5.9
  • WNBA5-550%−3.6
  • US Open2-340%−1.7
  • NFL1-233%−7.0
  • NCAAF2-167%+13.1
  • NBA1-0100%+50.5
  • Primera División · Costa Rica1-0100%+17.9
  • NHL0-10%−52.0
  • Premier League · Armenia0-10%−57.1
  • Super League · China0-10%−46.0

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Picks

Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:28 · 7 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Detroit Pistons
129:125
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors +5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 16:30 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 16:23 · 10 h before start
odds 1.77Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:1
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 14:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
5:6
Vancouver Canucks
Edmonton Oilers −1.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Sept, 11:30 · 13 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
27:7
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 14:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Miami Marlins
3:0
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 12:53 · 13 h before start
odds 1.15Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Los Angeles Sparks
75:76
Golden State Valkyries
Golden State Valkyries to win@1.15
Open on Xexpected 83% from odds+0.15 u
Parlay · 2posted 22 Sept, 19:30 · 3 h before start
odds 3.21Lost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:8
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs to win@1.46✕
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
6:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.20✕
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 22 Sept, 14:34 · 8 h before start
odds 4.95Lost
NHL · NHL: Preseason·
Carolina Hurricanes
3:2
Florida Panthers
penalties
Florida Panthers to win@1.56✕
NHL · NHL: Preseason·
Winnipeg Jets
1:2
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers to win@1.91✓
NHL · NHL: Preseason·
San Jose Sharks
1:2
Vegas Golden Knights
penalties
San Jose Sharks to win@1.67✕
Open on Xexpected 17% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 04:36 · 16 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
3:1
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 04:36 · 14 h before start
odds 2.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Houston Astros
2:4
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line+1.33 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 04:35 · 13 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
4:3
Kansas City Royals
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 04:35 · 13 h before start
odds 1.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:1
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.65 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Sept, 04:32 · 12 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
20:24
Philadelphia Eagles
Tennessee Titans +3.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
20:24
Philadelphia Eagles
Under 50.5✓
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:15 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 13:36 · 6 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
35:42
USC Trojans
Over 40
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 15:33 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
28:26
Houston Cougars
Houston Cougars +7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 04:00 · 19 h before start
odds 1.73DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
6:2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 04:00 · 15 h before start
odds 2.09DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:1
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 03:59 · 14 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
5:4
New York Yankees
New York Yankees −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 04:05 · 19 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
0:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 06:29 · 19 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
8:7
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins +1.5
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 13 Sept, 08:05 · 9 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
Tennessee Titans +13.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
Under 56.5✓
Open on Xexpected 30% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 04:40 · 12 h before start
odds 2.09DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:2
Houston Astros
Philadelphia Phillies −1.5
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 04:18 · 19 h before start
Won
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 72% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 13:40 · 7 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Naomi Osaka
0:2
Elena Rybakina
Over 22.5 games@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 12:46 · 14 h before start
Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:0
Alejandro Tabilo
Under 16 games
Open on Xexpected 3% by model
Singleposted 5 Sept, 03:17 · 17 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
New York Mets
5:9
San Francisco Giants
New York Mets to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 03:14 · 20 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
0:1
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 03:14 · 44 h before start
Won
Costa Rica · Primera División: Apertura·
Club Sport Herediano
2:3
Municipal Perez Zeledon
Municipal Perez Zeledon over 0.5
Open on Xexpected 82% by model