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The Juice report

@thejuicereport1126 followersfirst pick 10 Octusually posts 51 min before start

Sports. Gambling. Culture. Chaos. Big games. Bad beats. Hot takes. Breaking news. We say what everyone else is thinking. We’ve got the juice. 🧃

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseballBasketballFootball
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Tipster index48.2#408 on the leaderboarddown 199 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.1%
expected 49.5%
Edge
−1.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 37.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
53
25-27-1
ROI
−5.1%
on 52 picks with odds · max drawdown −9.25 u
Average odds
1.98
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.5010 Oct13 Oct15 Oct18 Oct21 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF13-21-1 · 35 graded
−11.0
38%
Hockey8-3 · 11 graded
+23.3
73%
Basketball2-1 · 3 graded
+22.6
67%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+11.3
67%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−60.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result21-15 · 36 graded
+8.5
58%
Handicap1-7-1 · 9 graded
−39.6
13%
Totals3-4 · 7 graded
−7.8
43%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−9.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-3 · 7 graded
−9.6
57%
Even18-19-1 · 38 graded
−1.7
49%
Underdog3-4 · 7 graded
+9.0
43%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.50…1.8910-9 · 19 graded
−7.8%
53%
1.90…2.298-11-1 · 20 graded
−13.4%
42%
2.30…3.494-4 · 8 graded
+30.6%
50%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −1.4 pp
    25-27-1 · 48%
    ROI −5.1%

By league

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 20 Oct, 19:01 · 4 h before start
odds 2.50Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 19:01 · 6 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:02 · 57 min before start
odds 1.65Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:02 · 57 min before start
odds 2.10Won
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
65:79
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta Dream to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:02 · 27 min before start
odds 2.10Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:1
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:02 · 2 h before start
odds 2.55Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins to win@2.55
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:35 · 49 min before start
odds 4.25Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to win@4.25
Open on Xexpected 22% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:35 · 49 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Over 41.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:35 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams −12.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:35 · 49 min before start
odds 3.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders to win@3.00
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:35 · 49 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.91Push
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New England Patriots −7@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.57Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Under 43.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.65Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.65 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.71Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 5 min before start
odds 3.15Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky Wildcats to win@3.15
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds+2.15 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 5 min before start
odds 1.74Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish −9.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 5 min before start
odds 2.00Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 5 min before start
odds 2.50Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Cowboys to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
17:14
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks −6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 35 min before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 35 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
5:2
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 2 h before start
odds 2.15Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Los Angeles Kings
1:4
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.15 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
2:6
Edmonton Oilers
Over 6.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:24 · 3 h before start
odds 1.49Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
6:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Vegas Golden Knights to win@1.49
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds+0.49 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:07 · 53 min before start
odds 2.35Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:07 · 53 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Bowling Green Falcons
31:32
Ball State Cardinals
Bowling Green Falcons −6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u