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@atlasrising__26 followersfirst pick 26 Septusually posts 39 h before start

Family. Texas. Sports. Da Bears. Red Sox.

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index48.1#409 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
44.4%
expected 48.5%
Edge
−4.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 21.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
10
4-5-1
ROI
-
on 3 picks with odds
Average odds
1.77
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.4-0.2025 Sept1 Oct7 Oct12 Oct18 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-5-1 · 10 graded
−4.0
44%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap3-5-1 · 9 graded
−9.6
38%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+40.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0-1 · 2 graded
+39.9
100%
Even3-5 · 8 graded
−9.5
38%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +2.8 pp
    2-2-1 · 50%
  • October 2026
    −9.5 pp
    2-3 · 40%

By league

  • NFL3-4-143%−7.3
  • NCAAF1-150%+7.5

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:53 · 23 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:53 · 4 days before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars −2.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:53 · 4 days before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:53 · 4 days before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:53 · 4 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts −7
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:29 · 20 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bearcats
31:26
Kansas State Wildcats
Cincinnati Bearcats −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:29 · 38 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
21:18
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers −2
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:29 · 14 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Eastern Michigan Eagles
29:3
Lindenwood Lions
Lindenwood Lions −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:29 · 41 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
31:34
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 03:29 · 38 h before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
24:16
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +8
Open on Xexpected 69% by model