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@BSCNmedia24.1K followersfirst pick 15 Septusually posts 21 h before start

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NFL & NCAAFBaseball
Tipster index48.2#405 on the leaderboarddown 164 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
52.6%
expected 54.9%
Edge
−2.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 34.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
19
10-9
ROI
−8.4%
on 13 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.00 u
Average odds
1.71
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W6, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1017 Sept24 Sept2 Oct10 Oct18 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF5-6 · 11 graded
−5.5
45%
Baseball5-3 · 8 graded
+2.1
63%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap7-6 · 13 graded
−1.9
54%
Totals3-2 · 5 graded
+2.3
60%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−30.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-4 · 8 graded
−13.8
50%
Even6-4 · 10 graded
+9.7
60%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.895-5 · 10 graded
−14.8%
50%
1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +58.7 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    −5.7 pp
    9-9 · 50%
    ROI −8.4%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 16 Oct, 14:00 · 26 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 13:00 · 11 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itVoid
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line
Same-game combo · 3posted 15 Oct, 23:00 · 3 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 31.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 39.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 47.5✕
Open on Xexpected 30% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:00 · 20 h before start
odds 1.49DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.49 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:11 · 26 h before start
odds 1.72DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.72 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 14:00 · 10 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 15:01 · 9 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:7
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 14:00 · 7 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:00 · 26 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 12:40 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Over 42.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 01:13 · 23 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:13 · 21 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:10 · 24 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Over 51.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:10 · 22 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 15:35 · 8 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox +1.5
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 01:06 · 4 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 15:03 · 11 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres +1.5
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 15:00 · 9 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints −1.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 15:00 · 2 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model