LONG

@longnguyen_942.3K followersfirst pick 29 Oct

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TennisFootball

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Tipster index49.9needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

66.7%

expected 67.1%

Edge

−0.5 pp

over expectation

Graded

2-1

ROI

on 3 picks with odds

Average odds

1.43

singles with odds

Form

streak W2 · best W2, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis1-1 · 2 graded

−20.9

50%

Football1-0 · 1 graded

+40.5

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result2-1 · 3 graded

−0.5

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded

−20.9

50%

Even1-0 · 1 graded

+40.5

100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-1 · 2 graded

50%

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded

100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).