AB ODDS

@abodds22293 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

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Tipster index49.3#247 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:20

Jiri Lehecka

live

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar to win

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:30

Stefanos Tsitsipas

live

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz to win

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 08:30

Daniil Medvedev

-:-

Dalibor Svrcina

Daniil Medvedev to win

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 10:00

Arthur Fils

-:-

Botic van de Zandschulp

Arthur Fils to win

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 10:00

Zizou Bergs

-:-

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz to win

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 11:30

Tommy Paul

-:-

Valentin Vacherot

Tommy Paul to win

Hit rate

53.1%

expected 53.4%

Edge

−0.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 50.5%, the edge is within noise

Graded

1,033

547-483-3 · 6 pending

ROI

−8.1%

on 560 picks with odds · max drawdown −47.74 u

Average odds

1.78

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W9, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis297-240-1 · 538 graded

−0.1

55%

Baseball170-161 · 331 graded

+0.1

51%

NFL & NCAAF61-57-2 · 120 graded

+1.3

52%

Football10-18 · 28 graded

−16.8

36%

Basketball7-5 · 12 graded

+1.9

58%

Hockey1-2 · 3 graded

−21.1

33%

Cricket1-0 · 1 graded

+40.6

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result440-356-1 · 797 graded

−1.1

55%

Handicap55-30-2 · 87 graded

+8.8

65%

Totals40-35 · 75 graded

−0.4

53%

Parlays12-59 · 71 graded

−0.2

17%

Team totals0-3 · 3 graded

−44.1

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite234-125-3 · 362 graded

−1.8

65%

Even281-247 · 528 graded

+1.3

53%

Underdog20-52 · 72 graded

−5.2

28%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5084-41-1 · 126 graded

−7.2%

67%

1.50…1.89146-117 · 263 graded

−6.3%

56%

1.90…2.2951-51 · 102 graded

+2.4%

50%

2.30…3.4911-28 · 39 graded

−31.3%

28%

3.50+1-5 · 6 graded

−33.3%

17%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
−1.7 pp
254-244-1 · 51%
ROI −13.7%
September 2026
+2.4 pp
272-208-1 · 57%
ROI +0.8%
October 2026
−12.4 pp
21-31-1 · 40%
ROI −21.5%

By league

MLB · USA170-14155%+0.5
US Open91-5761%+3.9
ATP 100067-52-156%−0.9
WTA 100046-3457%+2.6
NCAAF33-25-157%+4.2
ATP Challenger31-2753%−3.4
NFL25-26-149%−5.0
ATP 25017-1259%+1.9
ATP 50011-1052%−8.7
WTA 50011-858%−3.1

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 6 h before start

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 04:10

Learner Tien

0:2

Casper Ruud

Learner Tien to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 6 h before start

Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 04:10

Pablo Carreno Busta

1:2

Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 8 h before start

Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:30

Stefanos Tsitsipas

live

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 8 h before start

Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:20

Jiri Lehecka

live

Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 10 h before start

Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 08:30

Daniil Medvedev

-:-

Dalibor Svrcina

Daniil Medvedev to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 11 h before start

Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 10:00

Arthur Fils

-:-

Botic van de Zandschulp

Arthur Fils to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 11 h before start

Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 10:00

Zizou Bergs

-:-

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:39 · 13 h before start

Pending

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 11:30

Tommy Paul

-:-

Valentin Vacherot

Tommy Paul to win

Parlay · 4posted 11 Oct, 15:05 · 5 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:05

Los Angeles Chargers

17:23

Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos −3.5✓

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:25

Arizona Cardinals

21:45

Detroit Lions

Arizona Cardinals +5.5✕

NFL · Regular Season·11 Oct, 20:25

Seattle Seahawks

29:32

San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers to win✓

NFL · Regular Season·12 Oct, 00:20

Atlanta Falcons

23:30

Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons to win✕

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 5 h before start

odds 1.35Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 04:10

Rei Sakamoto

2:0

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev to win@1.35

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 5 h before start

odds 1.50Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 04:10

Adrian Mannarino

2:1

Flavio Cobolli

Flavio Cobolli to win@1.50

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 8 h before start

odds 1.38Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 06:55

Yannick Hanfmann

0:2

Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe to win@1.38

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 7 h before start

odds 1.62Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 05:50

Matteo Berrettini

0:2

Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima to win@1.62

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 10 h before start

odds 1.40Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 08:50

Karen Khachanov

2:1

Arthur Fery

Karen Khachanov to win@1.40

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 9 h before start

odds 1.44Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 08:00

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2:0

Jenson Brooksby

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@1.44

Singleposted 8 Oct, 22:46 · 11 h before start

odds 1.30Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 09:35

Miomir Kecmanovic

0:2

Jakub Mensik

Jakub Mensik to win@1.30

Singleposted 6 Oct, 00:52 · 6 h before start

odds 1.73Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 07:15

Kyrian Jacquet

1:2

Rei Sakamoto

Kyrian Jacquet to win@1.73

Singleposted 6 Oct, 00:52 · 17 h before start

odds 1.94Won

ATP Challenger · Villena, Spain·6 Oct, 17:40

August Holmgren

1:2

Pedro Martinez

Pedro Martinez to win@1.94

Singleposted 6 Oct, 00:52 · 9 h before start

odds 2.30Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 10:20

Pavel Kotov

2:0

Aleksandar Vukic

Aleksandar Vukic to win@2.30

Parlay · 5posted 6 Oct, 00:37 · 3 h before start

Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 03:10

Daria Snigur

0:2

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win✓

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 04:30

Linda Noskova

0:2

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Linda Noskova to win✕

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 10:20

Sinja Kraus

1:2

Nikola Bartunkova

Nikola Bartunkova to win✓

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·6 Oct, 09:15

Carlos Alcaraz

2:0

Jiri Lehecka

Carlos Alcaraz to win✓

ATP 500 · China Open·6 Oct, 11:15

Novak Djokovic

void

Alex de Minaur

Novak Djokovic to win∅

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 12 h before start

Void

ATP 500 · China Open·6 Oct, 11:15

Novak Djokovic

void

Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur to win

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 30 h before start

odds 1.48Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·7 Oct, 05:10

Iva Jovic

0:2

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek to win@1.48

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 5 h before start

odds 1.31Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 04:30

Linda Noskova

0:2

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Linda Noskova to win@1.31

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 8 h before start

odds 1.69Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 07:10

Karolina Muchova

2:1

Naomi Osaka

Karolina Muchova to win@1.69

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 9 h before start

odds 1.40Lost

WTA Challenger · Samsun, Turkiye·6 Oct, 08:55

Emiliana Arango

0:2

Ayla Aksu

Emiliana Arango to win@1.40

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 10 h before start

odds 1.33Lost

WTA Challenger · Samsun, Turkiye·6 Oct, 09:15

Antonia Ruzic

1:2

Alicia Dudeney

Antonia Ruzic to win@1.33

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 5 h before start

odds 1.44Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 04:10

Aziz Dougaz

1:2

Federico Cina

Federico Cina to win@1.44

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:30 · 7 h before start

odds 1.60Void

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 06:35

Yoshihito Nishioka

void

Dalibor Svrcina

Dalibor Svrcina to win@1.60

Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:18 · 42 min before start

odds 1.82Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Houston Texans

30:34

Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans −2.5@1.82

Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:18 · 42 min before start

odds 1.73Lost

NFL · Regular Season·4 Oct, 17:00

Cincinnati Bengals

17:22

Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.73

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