TheHumbleBettor

@TheHumbleBettor244 followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 4 h before start

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Tennis

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Tipster index51.3#299 on the leaderboarddeveloping sample

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 48.7%

Edge

+1.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 36.1%, the edge is within noise

Graded

16-16

ROI

+8.5%

on 28 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.85 u

Average odds

2.03

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis16-16 · 32 graded

+1.3

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result12-13 · 25 graded

−0.8

48%

Parlays3-2 · 5 graded

+11.4

60%

Totals1-1 · 2 graded

+1.3

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-2 · 2 graded

−66.5

Even11-11 · 22 graded

+1.3

50%

Underdog2-1 · 3 graded

+29.4

67%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-3 · 5 graded

−30.8%

40%

1.90…2.297-7 · 14 graded

+3.1%

50%

2.30…3.493-1 · 4 graded

75%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
−49.9 pp
0-1 · 0%
September 2026
+0.9 pp
10-10 · 50%
ROI +4.2%
October 2026
+6.5 pp
6-5 · 55%
ROI +32.3%

By league

ATP 2507-464%+16.6
ATP 10005-550%+1.5
US Open1-150%+0.7
WTA 2500-10%−46.2
WTA 10000-10%−64.1
ATP 5000-10%−57.8
ATP team tournaments0-10%−47.6

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 01:21 · 5 h before start

odds 2.04Won

ATP 250 · Almaty Open·21 Oct, 06:40

James Duckworth

2:0

Luciano Darderi

James Duckworth to win@2.04

Singleposted 20 Oct, 05:08 · 1 h before start

odds 2.06Lost

WTA 250 · Japan Open·20 Oct, 06:25

Maya Joint

1:2

Zeynep Sonmez

Maya Joint to win@2.06

Singleposted 16 Oct, 02:43 · 4 h before start

odds 2.15Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·16 Oct, 06:40

Rafael Jodar

2:1

Casper Ruud

Casper Ruud to win@2.15

Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:52 · 3 h before start

odds 1.91Void

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·15 Oct, 06:40

Arthur Gea

void

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win@1.91

Singleposted 14 Oct, 03:26 · 4 h before start

odds 2.20Void

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·14 Oct, 07:05

Casper Ruud

void

Felix Auger Aliassime

Casper Ruud to win@2.20

Singleposted 12 Oct, 03:09 · 3 h before start

odds 2.30Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·12 Oct, 06:30

Stefanos Tsitsipas

2:1

Taylor Fritz

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@2.30

Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:20 · 8 h before start

odds 1.92Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 12:50

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

2:1

Frances Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe to win@1.92

Singleposted 11 Oct, 04:20 · 6 h before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 10:10

Alexander Zverev

2:1

Quentin Halys

Over 22.5 games@2.00

Singleposted 9 Oct, 01:29 · 5 h before start

odds 2.20Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·9 Oct, 06:15

Quentin Halys

2:1

Alexander Blockx

Quentin Halys to win@2.20

Singleposted 8 Oct, 01:49 · 2 h before start

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·8 Oct, 04:10

Jaume Munar

0:2

Jenson Brooksby

Jaume Munar to win

Singleposted 8 Oct, 01:49 · 2 h before start

Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·8 Oct, 04:10

Nuno Borges

2:0

Facundo Acosta

Nuno Borges to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04 · 4 h before start

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 07:15

Kyrian Jacquet

1:2

Rei Sakamoto

Kyrian Jacquet to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 03:04 · 1 h before start

odds 2.04Won

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification·6 Oct, 04:10

Roman Safiullin

2:0

Shintaro Mochizuki

Roman Safiullin to win@2.04

Singleposted 30 Sept, 01:46 · 1 h before start

odds 1.65Lost

ATP 500 · China Open·30 Sept, 03:10

Karen Khachanov

2:0

Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime to win@1.65

Parlay · 3posted 29 Sept, 01:45 · 25 min before start

odds 1.87Won

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo): Qualification·29 Sept, 03:35

Arthur Fils

2:1

Kamil Majchrzak

Arthur Fils to win✓

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo): Qualification·29 Sept, 02:10

Stefanos Tsitsipas

2:0

Rinky Hijikata

Stefanos Tsitsipas to win✓

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·29 Sept, 11:40

Daniil Medvedev

2:0

Andrey Rublev

Daniil Medvedev +1.5 sets✓

Singleposted 28 Sept, 02:19 · 7 h before start

odds 1.77Lost

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·28 Sept, 09:10

Nikoloz Basilashvili

1:2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@1.77

Singleposted 27 Sept, 02:01 · 28 h before start

Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open: Qualification·28 Sept, 06:20

Elvina Kalieva

2:0

Ellen Perez

Ellen Perez to win

Parlay · 2posted 26 Sept, 19:40 · 12 h before start

odds 1.63Won

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·27 Sept, 12:25

Daniil Medvedev

2:1

Chak Wong

Daniil Medvedev to win✓

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·27 Sept, 07:45

Hugo Gaston

1:2

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev to win✓

Singleposted 26 Sept, 19:40 · 9 h before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·27 Sept, 05:05

Jenson Brooksby

0:2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@2.00

Singleposted 26 Sept, 05:52 · 38 min before start

odds 1.83Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·26 Sept, 06:30

Federico Cina

0:2

Alexandre Muller

Alexandre Muller to win@1.83

Singleposted 26 Sept, 05:52 · 8 h before start

odds 1.63Won

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·26 Sept, 13:40

Chak Wong

2:1

Adolfo Vallejo

Chak Wong to win@1.63

Parlay · 2posted 25 Sept, 02:58 · 8 h before start

odds 1.95Lost

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·25 Sept, 12:10

Jaime Faria

1:2

Hugo Gaston

Jaime Faria to win✕

ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·25 Sept, 10:35

Rinky Hijikata

0:2

Andrey Rublev

Andrey Rublev to win✓

Parlay · 2posted 25 Sept, 02:58 · 2 h before start

odds 2.02Lost

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 06:35

Alejandro Tabilo

0:2

Adrian Mannarino

Alejandro Tabilo to win✕

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 05:10

Vit Kopriva

0:2

Denis Shapovalov

Denis Shapovalov to win✓

Singleposted 25 Sept, 02:58 · 6 h before start

odds 2.37Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 08:40

Nikoloz Basilashvili

2:0

Botic van de Zandschulp

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@2.37

Singleposted 25 Sept, 02:58 · 2 h before start

odds 2.20Lost

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·25 Sept, 05:15

Jenson Brooksby

2:1

Lorenzo Sonego

Lorenzo Sonego to win@2.20

Singleposted 25 Sept, 02:58 · 9 h before start

odds 2.00Lost

ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·25 Sept, 12:20

Casper Ruud

2:1

Francisco Cerundolo

Francisco Cerundolo to win@2.00

Parlay · 2posted 24 Sept, 06:46 · 4 h before start

odds 1.83Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·24 Sept, 10:50

Lloyd Harris

2:0

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Lloyd Harris to win✓

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·24 Sept, 11:05

Alexander Shevchenko

0:2

Hubert Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz to win✓

Singleposted 24 Sept, 06:46 · 3 h before start

odds 2.00Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·24 Sept, 09:20

Moise Kouame

0:2

Alexandre Muller

Alexandre Muller to win@2.00

Singleposted 24 Sept, 06:46 · 2 h before start

odds 2.50Won

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·24 Sept, 08:55

Miomir Kecmanovic

0:2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@2.50

Singleposted 23 Sept, 05:09 · 1 min before start

odds 2.40Lost

ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·23 Sept, 05:10

Sebastian Baez

0:2

Jenson Brooksby

Sebastian Baez to win@2.40