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@sliptogreen107 followersfirst pick 7 Augusually posts 11 h before start

💎🍒Sports Bettor jackpot winner Egypt 🇪🇬 moved to 🇨🇦 CandaNorth America How long before X change to my new location!

TennisNFL & NCAAFBaseballHockeyFootballBasketball
Tipster index49.8#358 on the leaderboarddown 14 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
57.9%
expected 58.0%
Edge
−0.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 51.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
183
106-77
ROI
−2.8%
on 144 picks with odds · max drawdown −12.81 u
Average odds
1.75
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W8, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-206 Aug26 Aug14 Sept3 Oct23 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF30-21 · 51 graded
−1.2
59%
Tennis25-24 · 49 graded
−6.2
51%
Baseball20-16 · 36 graded
+2.4
56%
Hockey16-12 · 28 graded
+0.8
57%
Football14-3 · 17 graded
+13.1
82%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
+9.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result82-60 · 142 graded
−0.6
58%
Handicap22-10 · 32 graded
+5.4
69%
Parlays1-5 · 6 graded
+0.1
17%
Both teams to score0-2 · 2 graded
−67.8
0%
Totals1-0 · 1 graded
+32.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite58-27 · 85 graded
−1.5
68%
Even45-39 · 84 graded
+1.9
54%
Underdog2-6 · 8 graded
−6.7
25%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5032-13 · 45 graded
−5.3%
71%
1.50…1.8930-31 · 61 graded
−16.6%
49%
1.90…2.2915-12 · 27 graded
+14.1%
56%
2.30…3.492-5 · 7 graded
−28.9%
29%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −7.4 pp
    21-23 · 48%
    ROI −13.6%
  • September 2026
    +5.5 pp
    28-14 · 67%
    ROI −10.7%
  • October 2026
    +0.8 pp
    57-40 · 59%
    ROI +5.5%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 13 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 16 h before start
odds 3.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win
Open on Xexpected 26% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 13 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:0
Nashville Predators
Boston Bruins to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 13 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 13 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 13 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:1
Anaheim Ducks
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.45 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 13 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
4:0
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 14 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
2:3
Los Angeles Kings
New York Islanders to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 14 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
6:2
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 14 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 15 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:1
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 15 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line+1.14 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 16 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 09:50 · 16 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:5
Detroit Red Wings
Vancouver Canucks +1.5
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 02:00 · 5 h before start
odds 1.85Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Terence Atmane
2:1
Mattia Bellucci
Terence Atmane to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 02:00 · 10 h before start
odds 2.24Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Valentin Vacherot
1:2
Luca Van Assche
Luca Van Assche to win@2.24
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.24 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 02:00 · 40 min before start
odds 1.94Void
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Antonia Ruzic
void
Kayla Day
Antonia Ruzic to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 40 min before start
odds 1.49Won
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ann Li
2:0
Zeynep Sonmez
Ann Li to win@1.49
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds+0.49 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 7 h before start
odds 1.69Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Alexandra Eala
0:2
Diana Shnaider
Diana Shnaider to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 10 h before start
odds 1.32Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Raphael Collignon
0:2
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka to win@1.32
Open on Xexpected 72% from odds+0.32 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 13 h before start
odds 1.30Void
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Alexander Bublik
void
Fabian Marozsan
Alexander Bublik to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 15 h before start
odds 1.36Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Flavio Cobolli
2:0
Stan Wawrinka
Flavio Cobolli to win@1.36
Open on Xexpected 70% from odds+0.36 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 17 h before start
odds 1.44Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Kyrian Jacquet
0:2
Brandon Nakashima
Brandon Nakashima to win@1.44
Open on Xexpected 66% from odds+0.43 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 3 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Iva Jovic
2:0
Jasmine Paolini
Jasmine Paolini to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:59 · 8 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Tomas Machac
1:2
Karen Khachanov
Tomas Machac to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:52 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:52 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:52 · 5 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
14:25
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:52 · 5 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
19:26
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 11:52 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model