DARP picks

@darp_picks12 followersfirst pick 12 Oct

Godin, apostador por pasatiempo, algun dia seré apostador de tiempo completo

NFL & NCAAF

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Tipster index52.2needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

66.7%

expected 54.8%

Edge

+11.9 pp

over expectation

Graded

2-1

ROI

on 3 picks with odds

Average odds

1.65

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W1, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF2-1 · 3 graded

+11.9

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays1-1 · 2 graded

−3.3

50%

Totals1-0 · 1 graded

+42.1

100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even1-0 · 1 graded

+42.1

100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded

100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).