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Part Time Sharps

@parttimesharps58 followersfirst pick 26 Septusually posts 15 h before start

🎙️ Three guys. Strong opinions. Questionable picks? 🏈 Football, betting & debates. New episodes Saturdays. Pick a side. 👇

NFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index48.4#400 on the leaderboardup 47 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
52.6%
expected 54.8%
Edge
−2.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 34.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
19
10-9
ROI
+35.6%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W6, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.5025 Sept1 Oct7 Oct13 Oct20 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF10-9 · 19 graded
−2.1
53%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap9-7 · 16 graded
+1.6
56%
Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−50.7
0%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+35.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-2 · 6 graded
−2.0
67%
Even6-7 · 13 graded
−2.2
46%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.895-1 · 6 graded
+56.2%
83%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −54.9 pp
    0-2 · 0%
  • October 2026
    +4.1 pp
    10-7 · 59%
    ROI +35.6%

By league

  • NFL6-555%−1.8
  • NCAAF4-450%−2.5

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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 21:57 · 26 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 01:05 · 19 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:39 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:39 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
32:31
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Under 49.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:39 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Bulldogs +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:32 · 27 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
17:21
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:32 · 25 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
13:23
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints +2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:32 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
32:31
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Under 49
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:32 · 29 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 01:29 · 15 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
27:6
Texas A&M Aggies
Missouri Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:14 · 18 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
15:10
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:14 · 15 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:14 · 15 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys +3
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:14 · 18 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 02:14 · 15 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +7
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:00 · 12 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders +9.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 01:00 · 1 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Diego State Aztecs
31:29
Texas State Bobcats
San Diego State Aztecs +9.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 02:51 · 14 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
24:16
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 17:54 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
21:15
Vanderbilt Commodores
Auburn Tigers −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model