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Picks Taker

@PicksTaker1.2K followersfirst pick 27 Septusually posts 1 h before start

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NFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index49.9#381 on the leaderboarddown 23 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 50.2%
Edge
−0.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 32.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
18
9-9
ROI
+7.1%
on 16 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1-0.5026 Sept3 Oct10 Oct17 Oct24 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-7 · 10 graded
−19.3
30%
Hockey3-2 · 5 graded
+8.9
60%
Baseball3-0 · 3 graded
+48.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result8-5 · 13 graded
+11.6
62%
Handicap0-3 · 3 graded
−49.6
0%
Totals1-1 · 2 graded
−2.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even9-8 · 17 graded
+2.2
53%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−40.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.895-5 · 10 graded
−13.6%
50%
1.90…2.294-1 · 5 graded
+70.0%
80%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +11.8 pp
    2-1 · 67%
  • October 2026
    −2.6 pp
    7-8 · 47%
    ROI −1.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:02 · 58 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
4:5
Anaheim Ducks
Philadelphia Flyers to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:00 · 3 h before start
odds 2.15Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
16:19
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.15 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 19:23 · 1 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:29 · 31 min before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.10 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:29 · 30 min before start
odds 1.71Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:59 · 31 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 20:38 · 1 h before start
odds 2.15Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Florida Panthers
1:4
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.15 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 19:21 · 8 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:06 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Washington Huskies −2.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:27 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:1
New York Rangers
Washington Capitals to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 21:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
3:2
Minnesota Wild
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 00:13 · 1 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:45 · 15 min before start
odds 2.10Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:02 · 1 h before start
odds 2.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 40% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 23:20 · 40 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
3:4
Boston Bruins
Winnipeg Jets to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 00:39 · 1 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
8:0
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 20:08 · 16 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
31:34
Baltimore Ravens
Under 61.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 14:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
35:6
New England Patriots
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u