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Daily Hit Picks

@daily_hit_pick65 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

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BaseballTennisNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballFootball
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Tipster index52.9#243 on the leaderboarddown 37 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
58.2%
expected 56.6%
Edge
+1.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 54.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
409
238-171
ROI
−3.2%
on 319 picks with odds · max drawdown −27.53 u
Average odds
1.76
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W12, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-15-10-50531 Jul21 Aug11 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Baseball158-122 · 280 graded
+1.6
56%
Tennis42-31 · 73 graded
−1.4
58%
NFL & NCAAF32-8 · 40 graded
+12.1
80%
Hockey5-7 · 12 graded
−14.9
42%
Basketball0-2 · 2 graded
−13.4
0%
Football1-1 · 2 graded
−0.7
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result213-149 · 362 graded
+1.0
59%
Handicap16-7 · 23 graded
+13.7
70%
Totals8-6 · 14 graded
−1.6
57%
Parlays1-8 · 9 graded
+2.0
11%
Both teams to score0-1 · 1 graded
−59.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite106-53 · 159 graded
−1.4
67%
Even126-103 · 229 graded
+3.3
55%
Underdog5-7 · 12 graded
+6.6
42%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5039-19 · 58 graded
−11.8%
67%
1.50…1.8998-72 · 170 graded
−3.2%
58%
1.90…2.2930-36 · 66 graded
−6.3%
45%
2.30…3.4912-11 · 23 graded
+27.3%
52%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −4.3 pp
    86-87 · 50%
    ROI −9.5%
  • September 2026
    +7.1 pp
    147-76 · 66%
    ROI +4.9%
  • October 2026
    −15.8 pp
    5-8 · 38%
    ROI −33.2%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Daily Hit Picks (@daily_hit_pick) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 18 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:0
Nashville Predators
Boston Bruins to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 18 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 18 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 18 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:1
Anaheim Ducks
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.45 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 18 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
4:0
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 18 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
2:3
Los Angeles Kings
New York Islanders to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 19 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
6:2
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 19 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 20 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:1
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 20 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line+1.14 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 21 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:23 · 21 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:5
Detroit Red Wings
Vancouver Canucks +1.5
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:22 · 20 h before start
odds 3.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win
Open on Xexpected 26% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:33 · 4 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
36:30
Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 10 min before start
odds 1.99DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
4:3
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 2 h before start
odds 1.59DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
1:5
Cincinnati Reds
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 3 h before start
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
3:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.34 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 3 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
2:6
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 3 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Miami Marlins
3:8
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
5:11
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 6 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
6:9
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 6 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 6 h before start
odds 2.08DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:12
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.08 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 8 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
San Diego Padres
10:7
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 9 h before start
odds 2.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Athletics
2:13
Houston Astros
Athletics to win
Open on Xexpected 40% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 16:59 · 9 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
8:4
Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 17:40 · 7 h before start
odds 1.42DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 19:52 · 28 h before start
odds 3.10Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@3.10
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds+2.10 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 18:16 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB·
San Diego Padres
7:3
Miami Marlins
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 19:40 · 20 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
38:0
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Indiana Hoosiers −34.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model