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@fanfootballape526 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 14 h before start
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Tipster index53.3#228 on the leaderboardup 29 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win@2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win@1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win@1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win +5
Hit rate
59.3%
expected 57.5%
Edge
+1.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 56.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
621
367-252-2 · 12 pending
ROI
−1.3%
on 512 picks with odds · max drawdown −25.60 u
Average odds
1.66
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W12, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

051031 Jul21 Aug11 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Baseball219-158 · 377 graded
+1.2
58%
NFL & NCAAF90-56-2 · 148 graded
+3.5
62%
Hockey39-19 · 58 graded
+5.6
67%
Football11-11 · 22 graded
−10.3
50%
Basketball8-6 · 14 graded
+3.8
57%
Tennis0-2 · 2 graded
−17.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result258-157-2 · 417 graded
+2.2
62%
Handicap95-53 · 148 graded
+1.2
64%
Parlays5-39 · 44 graded
−4.1
11%
Totals9-3 · 12 graded
+14.5
75%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite211-93-2 · 306 graded
+2.2
69%
Even149-116 · 265 graded
+2.2
56%
Underdog2-4 · 6 graded
+3.1
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5098-22 · 120 graded
+10.0%
82%
1.50…1.89185-140-2 · 327 graded
−5.4%
57%
1.90…2.2928-28 · 56 graded
+0.0%
50%
2.30…3.493-5 · 8 graded
+2.0%
38%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +1.8 pp
    182-130-1 · 58%
    ROI −1.1%
  • September 2026
    −1.7 pp
    97-79 · 55%
    ROI −10.5%
  • October 2026
    +6.3 pp
    88-43-1 · 67%
    ROI +10.4%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 6 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 9 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 9 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 9 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 9 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 9 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 12 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Houston Rockets
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 12 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
-:-
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 12 h before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
-:-
LA Clippers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 12 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
-:-
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 13:36 · 12 h before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line
Parlay · 6posted 23 Oct, 13:34 · 9 h before start
Pending
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche to win◷
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
live
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers to win◷
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win◷
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win◷
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
-:-
LA Clippers
LA Lakers to win◷
Open on Xexpected 7% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:54 · 22 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 11 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.57 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 11 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 11 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 11 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.98 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 11 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Brooklyn Nets to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 12 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 12 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 12 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
128:110
Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line+0.23 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 14 h before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 14 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:26 · 14 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings +4.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Parlay · 9posted 15 Oct, 17:41 · 46 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan State Spartans
21:24
Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern Wildcats to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
53:25
Arizona State Sun Devils
Texas Tech Red Raiders to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
24:27
Utah Utes
Utah Utes to win✓
Open on Xexpected 9% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 17:32 · 3 days before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line+1.20 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 17:32 · 3 days before start
odds 3.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans to win
Open on Xexpected 28% from the closing line+2.40 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 17:32 · 3 days before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 17:32 · 3 days before start
odds 2.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns to win
Open on Xexpected 40% from the closing line+1.40 u

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