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Mr Sunday

@MrSundayspicks173 followersfirst pick 24 Augusually posts 1 h before start

NFL 22-13🏈 +6.22U💸 OVR 75-64💰+6.59U💸 MLB 30-25⚾️ +6.97U💸 CFB 23-26🏈 -6.61U💸

BaseballNFL & NCAAFFootball
CompareRSS
Tipster index52.6#248 on the leaderboardup 50 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
51.8%
expected 49.8%
Edge
+2.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
54
28-26
ROI
−3.9%
on 44 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.52 u
Average odds
1.88
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W3, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1012323 Aug6 Sept20 Sept4 Oct19 Oct

By sport

Baseball21-20 · 41 graded
+0.2
51%
NFL & NCAAF7-5 · 12 graded
+11.3
58%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−34.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result22-22 · 44 graded
−1.3
50%
Handicap1-3 · 4 graded
−33.1
25%
Parlays3-1 · 4 graded
+55.3
75%
Totals2-0 · 2 graded
+40.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-3 · 5 graded
−23.9
40%
Even23-19 · 42 graded
+2.8
55%
Underdog0-3 · 3 graded
−36.2
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8916-14 · 30 graded
−5.8%
53%
1.90…2.297-5 · 12 graded
+16.8%
58%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +11.9 pp
    11-7 · 61%
    ROI −2.1%
  • September 2026
    −5.7 pp
    14-18 · 44%
    ROI −8.2%
  • October 2026
    +19.6 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

  • MLB · USA21-2051%+0.2
  • NCAAF4-357%+11.1
  • NFL3-260%+11.4
  • MLS Next Pro · USA0-10%−34.8

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Picks

Singleposted 19 Oct, 00:18 · 2 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:52 · 8 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
27:34
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 14:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
45:42
Cincinnati Bearcats
West Virginia Mountaineers to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:23 · 37 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Over 49.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 16:24 · 29 h before start
Lost
USA · MLS Next Pro·
Colorado Rapids II
2:1
North Texas SC
North Texas SC to win
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 23:22 · 18 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
8:11
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:31 · 5 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
39:22
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:31 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
37:59
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears −3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:56 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
16:13
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa Hawkeyes −13.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 15:56 · 8 h before start
odds 2.13DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
2:6
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line+1.13 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 23:06 · 54 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas Jayhawks
21:38
Missouri Tigers
Kansas Jayhawks +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 11 Sept, 00:20 · 15 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Over 47.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Over 26.5✓
Open on Xexpected 34% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 23:34 · 6 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
0:2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 16:14 · 1 min before start
odds 1.77Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
3:1
Tampa Bay Rays
Atlanta Braves to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:25 · 1 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
7:6
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:25 · 2 h before start
odds 2.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
3:2
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:25 · 4 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Miami Marlins
14:15
New York Mets
Miami Marlins to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 23:13 · 26 min before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
3:9
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 17:26 · 8 min before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
6:4
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 17:26 · 43 min before start
odds 1.99DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
4:5
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.99 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 17:26 · 2 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
5:4
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 22:16 · 3 min before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
10:1
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.69 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 18:49 · 5 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
41:13
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers +21.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 17:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
San Diego Padres
4:3
New York Yankees
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 17:53 · 2 h before start
odds 2.77DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
2:0
Athletics
Athletics to win
Open on Xexpected 35% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 17:48 · 1 h before start
odds 2.13DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
8:10
St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 17:43 · 27 min before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
6:1
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 17:39 · 1 min before start
odds 2.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 39% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 22:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
4:1
Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 22:38 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Texas Rangers
6:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u