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Denim Davis

@shaqstain476 followersfirst pick 15 Augusually posts 1 h before start

Sports. Music. Fashion. Art.

BaseballTennisHockeyBasketballNFL & NCAAFFootball
Tipster index52.6#247 on the leaderboardup 64 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
54.3%
expected 52.8%
Edge
+1.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 48.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
175
95-80
ROI
−5.7%
on 129 picks with odds · max drawdown −15.15 u
Average odds
1.98
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W9, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-202414 Aug1 Sept18 Sept5 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Baseball38-39 · 77 graded
−3.1
49%
Tennis30-12 · 42 graded
+13.3
71%
Hockey14-12 · 26 graded
+4.0
54%
Basketball10-5 · 15 graded
+16.2
67%
NFL & NCAAF3-8 · 11 graded
−24.8
27%
Football0-4 · 4 graded
−32.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result95-80 · 175 graded
+1.5
54%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite37-18 · 55 graded
+0.6
67%
Even48-45 · 93 graded
+1.3
52%
Underdog10-17 · 27 graded
+4.0
37%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.509-6 · 15 graded
−17.9%
60%
1.50…1.8936-21 · 57 graded
+6.8%
63%
1.90…2.2910-15 · 25 graded
−16.4%
40%
2.30…3.499-21 · 30 graded
−24.0%
30%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −0.1 pp
    13-12 · 52%
    ROI +3.2%
  • September 2026
    +0.1 pp
    32-30 · 52%
    ROI −6.1%
  • October 2026
    +3.0 pp
    50-38 · 57%
    ROI −9.8%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 04:13 · 57 min before start
Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Sara Bejlek
0:2
Marie Bouzkova
Marie Bouzkova to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:50 · 1 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.29 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:22 · 4 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Flavio Cobolli
2:0
Stan Wawrinka
Flavio Cobolli to win
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:16 · 1 h before start
Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
0:2
Taylor Fritz
Pierre-Hugues Herbert to win
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 11:28 · 12 min before start
Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Raphael Collignon
0:2
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka to win
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 10:26 · 38 min before start
Void
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Elena Rybakina
void
Polina Kudermetova
Polina Kudermetova to win
Open on Xexpected 33% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 03:46 · 3 h before start
Won
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Magda Linette
0:2
Katerina Siniakova
Katerina Siniakova to win
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 01:24 · 1 h before start
Lost
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ann Li
2:0
Zeynep Sonmez
Zeynep Sonmez to win
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:42 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Gauthier Onclin
0:2
Jan-Lennard Struff
Jan-Lennard Struff to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 13:17 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Corentin Moutet
2:0
Felix Balshaw
Corentin Moutet to win
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 05:58 · 5 h before start
Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Sorana Cirstea
0:2
Sara Bejlek
Sorana Cirstea to win
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 04:18 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
James Duckworth
2:0
Luciano Darderi
James Duckworth to win
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 11 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 11 min before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
2:5
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line+1.36 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 11 min before start
odds 2.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
3:4
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win
Open on Xexpected 34% from the closing line+1.85 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 1 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Boston Bruins
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 2 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:3
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 3 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
4:3
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Detroit Red Wings to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:49 · 3 h before start
odds 3.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
3:6
Carolina Hurricanes
Vancouver Canucks to win
Open on Xexpected 29% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 05:53 · 2 h before start
Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Cristina Bucsa
0:2
Polina Kudermetova
Polina Kudermetova to win
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:18 · 1 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
3:1
San Jose Sharks
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 22:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
65:79
Atlanta Dream
Golden State Valkyries to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 17:04 · 3 h before start
odds 1.11DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 86% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 17:04 · 5 h before start
odds 2.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Minnesota Wild
2:1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus Blue Jackets to win
Open on Xexpected 37% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 17:04 · 7 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
3:2
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 22:57 · 2 min before start
odds 2.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:1
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers to win
Open on Xexpected 40% from the closing line+1.40 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 18:53 · 37 min before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
68:64
Atlanta Dream
Golden State Valkyries to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 00:33 · 27 min before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 00:33 · 9 h before start
Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Sonay Kartal
2:0
Jelena Ostapenko
Sonay Kartal to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model