Braden

@bradenptyltd1 followersfirst pick 20 Octusually posts 2 h before start

Building secure, intuitive apps that empower your business Combining innovative thinking with cutting-edge engineering to deliver secure SaaS solutions

FootballBasketballHockey

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Tipster index45.6needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Hit rate

28.6%

expected 40.1%

Edge

−11.5 pp

over expectation

Graded

2-5

ROI

−35.0%

on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u

Average odds

2.63

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football1-2 · 3 graded

+0.1

33%

Hockey0-2 · 2 graded

−39.1

Basketball1-1 · 2 graded

−1.4

50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-4 · 6 graded

−9.3

33%

Match result0-1 · 1 graded

−25.0

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite0-1 · 1 graded

−66.6

Even1-0 · 1 graded

+50.4

100%

Underdog1-4 · 5 graded

−12.9

20%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded

1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded

100%

2.30…3.491-2 · 3 graded

33%

3.50+0-2 · 2 graded

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).