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@DailySlipAI83 followersfirst pick 19 Augusually posts 5 h before start

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FootballNFL & NCAAFBasketballHockeyBaseballTennis
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Tipster index42.5#578 on the leaderboarddown 298 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.0%
expected 52.8%
Edge
−4.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
100
47-51-2
ROI
−6.9%
on 70 picks with odds · max drawdown −10.76 u
Average odds
2.03
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W6, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2018 Aug4 Sept21 Sept8 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Football26-27-2 · 55 graded
−4.5
49%
NFL & NCAAF10-9 · 19 graded
−0.1
53%
Basketball7-7 · 14 graded
−3.5
50%
Hockey2-5 · 7 graded
−16.0
29%
Baseball2-2 · 4 graded
−4.8
50%
Tennis0-1 · 1 graded
−55.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals23-21 · 44 graded
−0.9
52%
Match result14-12 · 26 graded
+2.9
54%
Handicap6-7-2 · 15 graded
−10.1
46%
Double chance2-4 · 6 graded
−30.8
33%
Parlays0-5 · 5 graded
−34.4
0%
Both teams to score2-2 · 4 graded
−6.6
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite15-7-1 · 23 graded
−2.9
68%
Even30-33-1 · 64 graded
−3.2
48%
Underdog2-6 · 8 graded
−4.9
25%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.505-2 · 7 graded
−5.4%
71%
1.50…1.8912-12 · 24 graded
−10.6%
50%
1.90…2.2914-12 · 26 graded
+6.2%
54%
2.30…3.492-5 · 7 graded
−31.4%
29%
3.50+1-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +0.8 pp
    8-8-1 · 50%
    ROI +25.1%
  • October 2026
    −6.0 pp
    39-43-1 · 48%
    ROI −14.2%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:14 · 3 h before start
odds 1.60Lost
LaLiga·
Barcelona
1:2
Real Madrid
Barcelona to win@1.60
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:14 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
16:30
Denver Broncos
Under 44@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:20 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 11:17 · 6 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:13 · 17 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
25:28
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins +4.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:13 · 2 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah Utes
21:13
Houston Cougars
Houston Cougars +6.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:13 · 17 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
21:27
New York Giants
Over 42.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 23:17 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Denver Nuggets
141:135
New Orleans Pelicans
Under 239.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 20:16 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
115:110
Miami Heat
Under 228.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 19:17 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
16:20
Virginia Tech Hokies
Under 26.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 18:20 · 1 h before start
odds 2.75Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
3:1
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings to win@2.75
Open on Xexpected 35% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 16:21 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Won
Primeira Liga·
Gil Vicente
0:1
FC Porto
Under 2.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 13:24 · 10 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
127:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Under 234.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:16 · 41 h before start
Won
Premier League·
Manchester United
0:3
AFC Bournemouth
Over 1
Open on Xexpected 96% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:17 · 23 h before start
odds 1.75Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
3:1
Los Angeles Kings
Over 5.5@1.75
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 18:18 · 5 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
102:112
Toronto Raptors
Under 237.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:17 · 10 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
108:111
Memphis Grizzlies
Under 237.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 23 Oct, 16:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Under 239.5✕
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Under 223.5✕
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Under 239.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:14 · 23 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
105:121
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:19 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
41:34
East Carolina Pirates
Under 55.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:22 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Under 50.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:21 · 6 h before start
odds 1.78Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
Ottawa Senators to win@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:29 · 3 h before start
Lost
Europa League · League Stage·
Celtic
1:2
Celta Vigo
Celtic or draw
Open on Xexpected 84% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 16:13 · 3 h before start
odds 1.62Lost
Europa League · League Stage·
AFC Bournemouth
3:0
AC Milan
Both teams to score: yes@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:26 · 11 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Under 235.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:24 · 10 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Appalachian State Mountaineers
34:31
James Madison Dukes
James Madison Dukes −11.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:17 · 4 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte Hornets
Under 219.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 18:26 · 34 min before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Club Brugge
3:0
Lens
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 72% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:21 · 11 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
Under 234.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u