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Uncle Roger

@UncleRogerPicks694 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Top 5 Handicapper: 50% Off First Month: https://t.co/SdtMuO3G2O

BaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketballFootball
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Tipster index43.8#657 on the leaderboarddown 11 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
46.3%
expected 50.1%
Edge
−3.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
137
63-73-1
ROI
−11.6%
on 123 picks with odds · max drawdown −21.54 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W6, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-7.5-5-2.5031 Jul24 Aug18 Sept12 Oct5 Nov

By sport

Baseball43-45-1 · 89 graded
−0.5
49%
NFL & NCAAF17-22 · 39 graded
−8.2
44%
Basketball1-5 · 6 graded
−34.1
17%
Football2-1 · 3 graded
+15.1
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result31-24 · 55 graded
+6.1
56%
Handicap14-29 · 43 graded
−19.1
33%
Totals18-17-1 · 36 graded
+1.4
51%
Parlays0-3 · 3 graded
−27.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
−0.8
67%
Even61-67-1 · 129 graded
−2.9
48%
Underdog0-2 · 2 graded
−32.3
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8929-29 · 58 graded
−10.3%
50%
1.90…2.2927-31-1 · 59 graded
−7.7%
47%
2.30…3.491-3 · 4 graded
-
25%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −2.3 pp
    31-34-1 · 48%
    ROI −8.2%
  • September 2026
    −3.9 pp
    22-26 · 46%
    ROI −15.3%
  • October 2026
    −14.9 pp
    7-12 · 37%
    ROI −34.4%
  • November 2026
    +25.1 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:43 · 16 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Massachusetts Minutemen
31:30
Ball State Cardinals
Over 49@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:43 · 46 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Eastern Michigan Eagles
7:35
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan Chippewas −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:43 · 16 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
106:112
Philadelphia 76ers
Detroit Pistons −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:43 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
107:117
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
21:27
New York Giants
Houston Texans −10.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
16:10
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +7@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:18 · 5 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
21:35
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −3.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:18 · 9 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks −3@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:42 · 18 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
31:0
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs +17.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:42 · 29 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills −7@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:09 · 1 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:09 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 22:51 · 9 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
26:27
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 22:51 · 39 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
22:3
New Mexico State Aggies
New Mexico State Aggies +6.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:40 · 19 min before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:40 · 19 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa State Cyclones
45:42
West Virginia Mountaineers
Iowa State Cyclones −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:40 · 49 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
31:3
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State Spartans +8.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:40 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Massachusetts Minutemen
14:38
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan Eagles +5.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:45 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions −2.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 22:45 · 15 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 22:45 · 1 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns +2.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 22:45 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
44:45
North Texas Mean Green
North Texas Mean Green −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 22:21 · 2 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:2
Boston Red Sox
Under 6.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 22:15 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
New York Liberty
87:71
Minnesota Lynx
Minnesota Lynx −3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 15:51 · 1 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
33:31
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −7.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 15:51 · 1 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
24:16
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +7@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 15:51 · 1 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:24
New York Jets
New York Jets +6.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:54 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
3:2
Cincinnati Reds
Under 7.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 23 Sept, 20:54 · 5 h before start
odds 2.14Won
MLB·
Athletics
7:3
Los Angeles Angels
Athletics to win@2.14
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.14 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 14:51 · 1 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas Razorbacks
17:45
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Bulldogs −24.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u