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TheSixthMan

@TheSixthManBets227 followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 3 h before start

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BaseballNFL & NCAAFTennisBasketballFootball
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Tipster index43.5#514 on the leaderboarddown 35 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
46.2%
expected 56.9%
Edge
−10.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 26.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
13
6-7
ROI
−31.6%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.22 u
Average odds
1.72
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W2, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-102 Aug18 Aug3 Sept19 Sept6 Oct

By sport

Baseball3-5 · 8 graded
−17.9
38%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−5.5
50%
Tennis1-0 · 1 graded
+39.1
100%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−55.6
0%
Football1-0 · 1 graded
+30.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-5 · 8 graded
−18.6
38%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+8.2
67%
Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
−7.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-1 · 4 graded
+12.1
75%
Even3-6 · 9 graded
−20.9
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-6 · 10 graded
−31.6%
40%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −7.3 pp
    5-5 · 50%
    ROI −24.0%
  • September 2026
    −53.3 pp
    0-2 · 0%
  • October 2026
    +39.9 pp
    1-0 · 100%

By league

  • MLB · USA3-538%−17.9
  • NFL1-0100%+39.9
  • Primera División · Costa Rica1-0100%+30.8
  • ATP 5001-0100%+39.1
  • NCAAF0-10%−50.9
  • SLB · Great Britain0-10%−55.6
  • Davis Cup0-0--

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:17 · 57 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 19:18 · 3 h before start
Void
Davis Cup · World Group II·
Cesar Cruz
void
Nuno Borges
Cesar Cruz −7
Open on Xexpected 45% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 04:07 · 11 h before start
Lost
Great Britain · SLB·
London Lions
84:76
Newcastle Eagles
London Lions −15
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 5 Sept, 14:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
59:14
Miami RedHawks
Under 47.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 18:48 · 7 h before start
Won
Costa Rica · Primera División: Apertura·
Municipal Perez Zeledon
1:1
LD Alajuelense
Under 3.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 28 Aug, 22:25 · 45 min before start
odds 1.77Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
9:4
San Diego Padres
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 15 Aug, 17:16 · 5 h before start
odds 1.70Lost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:4
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Aug, 17:01 · 6 h before start
odds 1.63Lost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:6
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Aug, 13:38 · 9 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
2:1
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Aug, 18:00 · 9 min before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
5:3
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Aug, 22:57 · 18 min before start
odds 1.72Won
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
6:8
Colorado Rockies
Over 8@1.72
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.72 u
Singleposted 5 Aug, 21:01 · 2 h before start
odds 1.78Won
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
4:0
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox to win@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 5 Aug, 14:53 · 3 h before start
odds 1.55Lost
MLB·
Houston Astros
4:5
Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros to win@1.55
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Aug, 12:42 · 5 h before start
odds 1.56Won
ATP 500 · Mubadala DC Open·
Taylor Fritz
2:0
Rafael Jodar
Taylor Fritz to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.56 u