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@PicksOffice47.8K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 7 h before start

Helping serious bettors build long-term profits with transparent, high-value plays and in-depth analysis. Get all my picks here: https://t.co/gjUTF5gF1j

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballFootball
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Tipster index43.9#557 on the leaderboarddown 44 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
44.9%
expected 48.4%
Edge
−3.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
228
102-125-1
ROI
−11.4%
on 197 picks with odds · max drawdown −26.13 u
Average odds
2.09
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L10

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-10-7.5-5-2.5031 Jul22 Aug12 Sept4 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Baseball91-109-1 · 201 graded
−2.1
46%
NFL & NCAAF8-10 · 18 graded
−13.5
44%
Hockey2-4 · 6 graded
−19.0
33%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
+2.5
50%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−10.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result73-107 · 180 graded
−6.1
41%
Totals19-10-1 · 30 graded
+10.7
66%
Handicap10-7 · 17 graded
+2.1
59%
Parlays0-1 · 1 graded
−25.4
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite10-11 · 21 graded
−18.6
48%
Even78-90-1 · 169 graded
−2.9
46%
Underdog14-23 · 37 graded
+3.3
38%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-3 · 4 graded
-
25%
1.50…1.8936-31 · 67 graded
−6.1%
54%
1.90…2.2931-44 · 75 graded
−14.9%
41%
2.30…3.4918-32 · 50 graded
−7.3%
36%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −2.1 pp
    84-104 · 45%
    ROI −10.4%
  • September 2026
    −18.3 pp
    7-11 · 39%
    ROI −15.7%
  • October 2026
    −2.7 pp
    11-10-1 · 52%
    ROI −29.4%

By league

  • MLB · USA91-109-146%−2.1
  • NCAAF5-456%−4.2
  • NFL3-538%−22.5
  • NHL2-433%−19.0
  • NBA1-150%+2.5
  • Primera B · Chile0-10%−10.1

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 20:37 · 2 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
108:101
LA Clippers
Over 221.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:37 · 2 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
109:136
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 00:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
2:6
Edmonton Oilers
Utah Mammoth to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 23:51 · 17 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +8.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Parlay · 4posted 17 Oct, 15:41 · 18 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boston College Eagles
27:21
Pittsburgh Panthers
Under 43✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
SMU Mustangs
23:13
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers +10↺
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Missouri Tigers +4.5✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
20:26
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans +7.5✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:17 · 6 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Over 25
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:24 · 35 min before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 20:47 · 3 days before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans +13.5
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 12:07 · 12 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 19:11 · 4 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
4:6
Carolina Hurricanes
Montreal Canadiens to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 21:33 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
2:3
Winnipeg Jets
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 15:17 · 9 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 18:47 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
24:14
Denver Broncos
Over 47.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 15:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
23:12
New York Jets
New York Jets +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:13 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
7:29
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Colorado Buffaloes +13
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:07 · 4 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
0:3
Chicago White Sox
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:07 · 8 h before start
Push
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:3
Atlanta Braves
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 2 Oct, 21:13 · 5 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
3:4
Anaheim Ducks
Over 6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 09:03 · 41 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona State Sun Devils
19:55
Baylor Bears
Baylor Bears +4
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:41 · 3 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
6:3
Buffalo Sabres
Over 6
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 18:03 · 6 h before start
odds 1.94DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 02:02 · 3 days before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Missouri Tigers +5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 20:58 · 1 min before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
0:1
Florida Panthers
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 16:04 · 10 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
8:0
Chicago Cubs
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 21:41 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
24:41
Oklahoma State Cowboys
West Virginia Mountaineers to win
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 23:43 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:4
San Diego Padres
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 19:06 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
6:7
Cincinnati Reds
Over 7.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 12:13 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
2:1
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 7
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 03:07 · 16 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
35:42
USC Trojans
Under 58.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 22:07 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions +5.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u