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The Sharp Republic

@TheSharpRep112 followersfirst pick 3 Septusually posts 2 days before start

Betting Football and talking Politics at times. #SportsBetting #Football #NFL #NCAA

NFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
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Tipster index45.4#570 on the leaderboarddown 104 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win@5.00
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
-:-
Nevada Wolf Pack
UCLA Bruins to win
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
-:-
Washington Huskies
Nebraska Cornhuskers to win
Hit rate
48.4%
expected 51.4%
Edge
−3.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 40.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
96
46-49-1 · 3 pending
ROI
+17.1%
on 40 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.55 u
Average odds
2.22
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-3-2-103 Sept16 Sept30 Sept14 Oct28 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF43-48-1 · 92 graded
−4.5
47%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+22.2
67%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+56.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap29-32-1 · 62 graded
−6.8
48%
Totals12-10 · 22 graded
+3.2
55%
Match result5-5 · 10 graded
+12.3
50%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−32.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite9-13-1 · 23 graded
−24.8
41%
Even33-29 · 62 graded
+3.1
53%
Underdog4-5 · 9 graded
+14.6
44%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-7 · 11 graded
−32.4%
36%
1.90…2.2916-8 · 24 graded
+30.8%
67%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
3.50+2-2 · 4 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −3.7 pp
    8-11 · 42%
    ROI −22.8%
  • October 2026
    −2.8 pp
    38-38-1 · 50%
    ROI +30.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:27 · 28 h before start
odds 5.00Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
-:-
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win@5.00
Open on Xexpected 19% from odds
Singleposted 28 Oct, 21:24 · 2 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
117:129
Miami Heat
Miami Heat to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line+1.20 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 19:53 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
-:-
Nevada Wolf Pack
UCLA Bruins to win
Open on Xexpected 82% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 19:53 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Nebraska Cornhuskers
-:-
Washington Huskies
Nebraska Cornhuskers to win
Open on Xexpected 76% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 13:06 · 10 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
21:35
Delaware Blue Hens
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +1.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 01:12 · 46 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
28:44
Kennesaw State Owls
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 01:12 · 46 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
28:44
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:43 · 2 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
25:28
Miami Dolphins
Under 48.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:43 · 23 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
TCU Horned Frogs
20:24
West Virginia Mountaineers
Under 57.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:43 · 23 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Atlantic Owls
51:49
Rice Owls
Rice Owls +8.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 16:11 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
16:19
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils +2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:46 · 32 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
34:17
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:46 · 28 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
28:10
Michigan State Spartans
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:46 · 28 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
13:10
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 40.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:46 · 32 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
34:27
Ole Miss Rebels
Under 53.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:28 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
41:34
East Carolina Pirates
Under 54.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 19:28 · 4 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Appalachian State Mountaineers
34:31
James Madison Dukes
Appalachian State Mountaineers +12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 2 days before start
odds 1.89Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Central Michigan Chippewas
27:28
Miami RedHawks
Over 39.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 2 days before start
odds 1.93Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio Bobcats
24:20
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Ohio Bobcats −12.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 2 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ball State Cardinals
34:17
Sacramento State Hornets
Sacramento State Hornets +15
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:30 · 2 days before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Buffalo Bulls
31:24
Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green Falcons +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:41 · 7 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Under 50.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:41 · 7 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Kennesaw State Owls +10
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:41 · 7 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −10
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:44 · 2 days before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
28:10
Michigan State Spartans
UCLA Bruins −14@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:44 · 2 days before start
odds 1.87Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
13:10
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes −6.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:44 · 2 days before start
odds 1.89Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Illinois Fighting Illini
21:10
Oregon Ducks
Over 50.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:44 · 2 days before start
odds 1.89Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
24:7
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers +3@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:44 · 2 days before start
odds 1.93Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
42:14
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Northwestern Wildcats −16.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:44 · 2 days before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
13:10
Iowa Hawkeyes
Over 40.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u