odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
13:43
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers to win
Tae K
GROUP CHAT: https://t.co/46pUBgzFwW Partner @ProphetX
BaseballNFL & NCAAFFootballBasketball
Hit rate
71.4%
expected 54.3%
Edge
+17.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 49.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
15
10-4-1
ROI
+91.0%
on 13 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
2.30
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W6, worst L2
Wins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Baseball5-1-1 · 7 graded
+34.383%
NFL & NCAAF3-2 · 5 graded
+6.560%
Football2-0 · 2 graded
+31.8100%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−62.60%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Match result9-3 · 12 graded
+20.875%
Totals1-0-1 · 2 graded
+52.6100%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−62.60%
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Favourite3-3-1 · 7 graded
−18.150%
Even6-1 · 7 graded
+37.086%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+89.4100%
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
< 1.502-1 · 3 graded
-67%
1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-75%
1.90…2.294-1 · 5 graded
+64.2%80%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-100%
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks- August 2026+51.9 pp1-0 · 100%
- September 2026+13.9 pp5-2-1 · 71%ROI +25.8%
- October 2026+15.0 pp4-2 · 67%ROI +179.6%
By league
- MLB · USA5-1-183%+34.3
- NFL2-167%+3.6
- NCAAF1-150%+10.9
- Champions League2-0100%+31.8
- NBA0-10%−62.6
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Picks
Tampa Bay BuccaneersLost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
103:110
Charlotte HornetsBrooklyn Nets +4.5
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Fenerbahçe
2:2
Slavia PragueOver 3.5
odds 9.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn TigersAuburn Tigers to win
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit LionsDetroit Lions to win
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver BroncosDenver Broncos to win
odds 2.18Won
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
1:5
St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals to win@2.18
odds 1.77Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:4
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers to win@1.77
Push
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:4
Milwaukee BrewersOver 5
odds 2.02Lost
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
4:2
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays to win@2.02
odds 2.02Void
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
void
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays to win@2.02
odds 1.07DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Barcelona
5:1
FeyenoordBarcelona to win
odds 1.99DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
4:5
Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks to win
odds 1.79DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers to win
odds 1.42DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
13:14
Colorado BuffaloesGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets to win
odds 2.04DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
6:5
St. Louis CardinalsCincinnati Reds to win