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kinetixis

@kinetixis17 followersfirst pick 30 Septusually posts 3 h before start

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BaseballNFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index66.1#28 on the leaderboardup 26 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers −1.5@2.25
Hit rate
72.2%
expected 50.8%
Edge
+21.5 pp
hit rate at least 52.9% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
18
13-5 · 1 pending
ROI
+64.2%
on 14 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.53 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak W5 · best W5, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

012329 Sept4 Oct8 Oct13 Oct18 Oct

By sport

Baseball10-1 · 11 graded
+39.2
91%
NFL & NCAAF3-4 · 7 graded
−6.3
43%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result12-3 · 15 graded
+27.4
80%
Handicap1-2 · 3 graded
−8.0
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
−0.1
67%
Even10-4 · 14 graded
+23.1
71%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+62.6
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.894-2 · 6 graded
+18.7%
67%
1.90…2.295-0 · 5 graded
+107.3%
100%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +53.1 pp
    2-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +17.5 pp
    11-5 · 69%
    ROI +57.4%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:39 · 2 h before start
odds 2.25Pending
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers −1.5@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:08 · 3 h before start
odds 1.92Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.92
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.92 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:21 · 39 min before start
odds 2.00Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
32:35
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State Mountaineers to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:02 · 57 min before start
odds 1.83Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:13 · 46 min before start
odds 2.55Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.55
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.55 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:19 · 2 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:19 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:32 · 27 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
20:14
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines −6
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:32 · 27 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide −5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:32 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida State Seminoles
38:7
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:32 · 5 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
34:35
Kentucky Wildcats
South Carolina Gamecocks to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:32 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Florida Gators −6
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:10 · 5 h before start
odds 1.47Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:3
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.47
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.47 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:10 · 2 h before start
odds 2.23Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
0:3
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.23
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.23 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 15:10 · 9 h before start
odds 1.47Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.47
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.47 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 13:38 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
3:4
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 13:38 · 7 h before start
odds 2.22Won
MLB · post-season·
Houston Astros
3:7
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.22
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.22 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 13:38 · 10 h before start
odds 1.69Won
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:2
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 13:38 · 12 h before start
odds 1.73Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:1
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.73 u