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naura

@Nauratoa33 followersfirst pick 13 Octusually posts 6 h before start

Berisik loe

TennisFootball
CompareRSS
Tipster index37.3#585 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
19.1%
expected 43.5%
Edge
−24.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 6.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
2-9
ROI
−66.8%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.50 u
Average odds
2.51
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W1, worst L9

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1012 Oct15 Oct17 Oct20 Oct22 Oct

By sport

Tennis2-5 · 7 graded
−22.1
29%
Football0-4 · 4 graded
−29.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-6 · 8 graded
−21.9
27%
Match result0-3 · 3 graded
−30.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+21.9
100%
Even1-5 · 6 graded
−31.3
18%
Underdog0-4 · 4 graded
−26.6
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.290-3 · 3 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
3.50+0-2 · 2 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −24.4 pp
    2-9 · 19%
    ROI −66.8%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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naura (@Nauratoa) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:53 · 6 h before start
Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Raphael Collignon
0:2
Jiri Lehecka
Raphael Collignon to win
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:53 · 6 h before start
odds 3.55Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Raphael Collignon
0:2
Jiri Lehecka
Raphael Collignon −3.55@3.55
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:53 · 6 h before start
odds 1.22Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Raphael Collignon
0:2
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka −1.22@1.22
Open on Xexpected 78% from odds+0.22 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 06:09 · 12 h before start
odds 1.62Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Nishesh Basavareddy
1:2
Raphael Collignon
Nishesh Basavareddy −1.62@1.62
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 06:09 · 12 h before start
odds 2.08Lost
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Nishesh Basavareddy
1:2
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon −2.08@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:57 · 2 h before start
odds 3.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
Sunderland to win
Open on Xexpected 24% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:57 · 2 h before start
odds 2.13Half lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
AFC Bournemouth −2.13@2.13
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−0.50 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:57 · 2 h before start
odds 3.45Lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
Draw@3.45
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:57 · 2 h before start
odds 3.45Lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
Sunderland −3.45@3.45
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 07:28 · 6 h before start
odds 1.60Won
WTA Challenger · Mallorca·
Rebeka Masarova
2:0
Noma Noha Akugue
Rebeka Masarova −1.6@1.60
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.60 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 07:28 · 6 h before start
odds 2.11Lost
WTA Challenger · Mallorca·
Rebeka Masarova
2:0
Noma Noha Akugue
Noma Noha Akugue −2.11@2.11
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u