Moneyline Hacks

@Moneylinehacks3.4K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 7 h before start

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TennisFootballBaseballNFL & NCAAFBasketballHockey

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Tipster index34.3#423 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Hit rate

45.7%

expected 54.5%

Edge

−8.8 pp

hit rate at most 50.8% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise

Graded

263

117-139-7 · 1 pending

ROI

−14.6%

on 32 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.33 u

Average odds

2.03

singles with odds

Form

streak L1 · best W6, worst L10

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Tennis69-63-1 · 133 graded

−1.3

52%

Football27-37-5 · 69 graded

−19.4

42%

Baseball15-18 · 33 graded

−7.1

45%

NFL & NCAAF6-16-1 · 23 graded

−18.0

27%

Basketball0-3 · 3 graded

−38.9

Hockey0-2 · 2 graded

−45.8

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result91-98-1 · 190 graded

−6.5

48%

Handicap6-15-6 · 27 graded

−21.9

29%

Totals7-14 · 21 graded

−20.3

33%

Double chance11-6 · 17 graded

−6.7

65%

Parlays2-6 · 8 graded

−2.9

25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite55-42-1 · 98 graded

−11.7

57%

Even52-69-3 · 124 graded

−7.3

43%

Underdog8-22-3 · 33 graded

−6.9

27%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-2 · 2 graded

1.50…1.898-6 · 14 graded

+2.9%

57%

1.90…2.294-8 · 12 graded

−34.1%

33%

2.30…3.490-3 · 3 graded

3.50+1-0 · 1 graded

100%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 3 months with 5+ picks

August 2026
−1.3 pp
57-46-2 · 55%
ROI −6.7%
September 2026
−10.0 pp
46-59-4 · 44%
ROI −3.9%
October 2026
−22.1 pp
14-34-1 · 29%

By league

ATP 100023-11-168%+12.1
MLB · USA15-1845%−7.1
US Open13-1546%−4.6
ATP 25016-1062%+8.5
Premier League · England10-11-348%−12.9
NFL5-11-131%−11.7
LaLiga · Spain6-9-240%−20.6
ATP 5002-1115%−32.3
WTA 5007-558%−3.1
WTA 10004-544%−15.1

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 11 Oct, 21:36 · 3 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·12 Oct, 00:20

Atlanta Falcons

23:30

Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons −3✕

NFL · Regular Season·12 Oct, 00:20

Atlanta Falcons

23:30

Baltimore Ravens

Under 43.5✕

Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:33 · 3 h before start

Won

Premier League·11 Oct, 13:00

Crystal Palace

3:1

Nottingham Forest

Crystal Palace to win

Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:33 · 37 min before start

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·11 Oct, 10:10

Alexander Bublik

2:1

Brandon Nakashima

Brandon Nakashima to win

Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:38 · 2 h before start

Won

Premier League·10 Oct, 11:30

Arsenal

2:1

Leeds United

Arsenal to win

Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:38 · 4 h before start

Won

Premier League·10 Oct, 14:00

Aston Villa

2:2

Brentford

Aston Villa or draw

Singleposted 10 Oct, 09:38 · 6 min before start

Lost

ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·10 Oct, 09:45

Learner Tien

2:0

Zachary Svajda

Zachary Svajda to win

Same-game combo · 2posted 9 Oct, 21:35 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Pre-season·10 Oct, 00:00

Chicago Bulls

100:104

Memphis Grizzlies

Chicago Bulls −2.5✕

NBA · Pre-season·10 Oct, 00:00

Chicago Bulls

100:104

Memphis Grizzlies

Under 239.5✓

Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:31 · 2 h before start

Lost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·10 Oct, 00:00

Winnipeg Jets

1:5

Anaheim Ducks

Winnipeg Jets to win

Singleposted 9 Oct, 20:30 · 2 h before start

Lost

NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·9 Oct, 23:00

Louisville Cardinals

44:20

Florida State Seminoles

Florida State Seminoles +4

Singleposted 9 Oct, 09:32 · 9 h before start

Push

LaLiga·9 Oct, 19:00

Malaga

1:1

Espanyol

Espanyol draw no bet

Singleposted 9 Oct, 09:32 · 2 h before start

Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·9 Oct, 11:10

Elise Mertens

2:0

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek to win

Singleposted 9 Oct, 09:32 · 15 h before start

Lost

Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·10 Oct, 01:00

Puebla

1:1

Leon

Leon to win

Singleposted 8 Oct, 09:35 · 13 h before start

Lost

Serie A·8 Oct, 22:30

Santos FC

2:2

Flamengo

Santos FC to win

Singleposted 8 Oct, 09:35 · 2 h before start

Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·8 Oct, 11:10

Ekaterina Alexandrova

0:2

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

Same-game combo · 2posted 7 Oct, 21:35 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Pre-season·8 Oct, 00:00

Memphis Grizzlies

118:122

Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic −1.5✓

NBA · Pre-season·8 Oct, 00:00

Memphis Grizzlies

118:122

Orlando Magic

Under 234.5✕

Singleposted 7 Oct, 20:45 · 1 h before start

Won

MLB · post-season·7 Oct, 22:00

Atlanta Braves

1:4

Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 7.5

Singleposted 7 Oct, 09:37 · 13 h before start

Won

Serie A·7 Oct, 22:30

Internacional

2:1

Corinthians

Internacional or draw

Singleposted 7 Oct, 09:37 · 13 h before start

Lost

Serie A·7 Oct, 22:30

RB Bragantino

1:1

Mirassol

Mirassol to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 09:31 · 2 h before start

Void

ATP 500 · China Open·6 Oct, 11:15

Novak Djokovic

void

Alex de Minaur

Alex de Minaur to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 09:31 · 49 min before start

Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·6 Oct, 10:20

Sinja Kraus

1:2

Nikola Bartunkova

Nikola Bartunkova to win

Singleposted 6 Oct, 09:31 · 20 h before start

Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·7 Oct, 05:10

Iva Jovic

0:2

Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek to win

Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:16 · 2 h before start

Won

NFL · Regular Season·6 Oct, 00:15

New Orleans Saints

24:45

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons to win

Singleposted 5 Oct, 21:36 · 3 h before start

Lost

NFL · Regular Season·6 Oct, 00:15

New Orleans Saints

24:45

Atlanta Falcons

Under 47.5

Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:22 · 5 h before start

Lost

NBA · Pre-season·5 Oct, 23:00

Atlanta Hawks

123:132

Memphis Grizzlies

Atlanta Hawks −3.5

Singleposted 5 Oct, 09:34 · 46 min before start

Lost

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·5 Oct, 10:20

Jiri Lehecka

2:0

Valentin Vacherot

Valentin Vacherot to win

Singleposted 5 Oct, 09:34 · 2 h before start

Pending

ATP 500 · China Open·5 Oct, 11:25

Novak Djokovic

live

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 09:37 · 13 min before start

Lost

ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·4 Oct, 09:50

Jiri Lehecka

2:0

Adolfo Vallejo

Adolfo Vallejo to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 09:37 · 2 h before start

Won

ATP 500 · China Open·4 Oct, 11:10

Alexander Zverev

1:2

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 09:37 · 2 h before start

Won

WTA 1000 · China Open·4 Oct, 11:10

Sara Bejlek

0:2

Naomi Osaka

Naomi Osaka to win

Singleposted 4 Oct, 09:37 · 5 h before start

Lost

WTA 1000 · China Open·4 Oct, 14:10

Karolina Muchova

2:1

Liudmila Samsonova

Liudmila Samsonova to win