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Exceptional Tips 🌐

@Moneylinemafian37 followersfirst pick 6 Augusually posts 9 h before start

we stacking funds💰

BaseballTennisFootballBasketballNFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index45.3#572 on the leaderboardup 26 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Valentin Vacherot
-:-
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win@1.32
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Alex Michelsen
-:-
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils to win@1.43
ATP Challenger · Brest, France·
Clement Tabur
-:-
Toby Samuel
Toby Samuel to win@1.63
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Taylor Fritz
-:-
Denis Shapovalov
Taylor Fritz to win@1.34
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Arthur Fery
-:-
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.33
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Novak Djokovic
-:-
Jan-Lennard Struff
Novak Djokovic to win@1.30
Hit rate
52.1%
expected 55.2%
Edge
−3.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
96
50-46 · 15 pending
ROI
−12.3%
on 77 picks with odds · max drawdown −14.36 u
Average odds
1.70
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W7, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-7.5-5-2.502.55 Aug26 Aug16 Sept7 Oct27 Oct

By sport

Baseball23-25 · 48 graded
−4.1
48%
Tennis13-14 · 27 graded
−7.3
48%
Basketball8-3 · 11 graded
+11.9
73%
Football5-3 · 8 graded
−1.3
63%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−11.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result44-39 · 83 graded
−5.2
53%
Parlays3-5 · 8 graded
+20.6
38%
Handicap2-2 · 4 graded
−9.8
50%
Totals1-0 · 1 graded
+11.5
100%
Both teams to score0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite22-16 · 38 graded
−10.8
58%
Even23-22 · 45 graded
−1.9
51%
Underdog2-3 · 5 graded
+6.8
40%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5016-8 · 24 graded
−10.0%
67%
1.50…1.8919-16 · 35 graded
−8.8%
54%
1.90…2.292-7 · 9 graded
−54.9%
22%
2.30…3.492-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +13.6 pp
    17-9 · 65%
    ROI +5.8%
  • September 2026
    −16.0 pp
    19-29 · 40%
    ROI −27.7%
  • October 2026
    +5.3 pp
    14-8 · 64%
    ROI +9.2%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 12 h before start
odds 1.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
Saudi Professional League·
Al Nassr
-:-
Al Kholood
Al Nassr to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 14 h before start
Pending
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
AE Prat
-:-
Athletic Club
Athletic Club to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 14 h before start
Pending
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Sporting Hortaleza
-:-
Sevilla
Sevilla −1
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 13 h before start
Pending
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 4·
Everton
-:-
Newcastle United
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
Serie A·
Fiorentina
-:-
Atalanta
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 12 h before start
Pending
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
UB Lebrijana
-:-
Getafe
Getafe to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 14 h before start
Pending
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Ribadesella CF
-:-
Racing Santander
Racing Santander to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:30 · 12 h before start
Pending
Saudi Professional League·
Al Riyadh
-:-
Al Qadsiah
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 74% by model
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 6 h before start
odds 1.32Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Valentin Vacherot
-:-
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win@1.32
Open on Xexpected 72% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 8 h before start
odds 1.43Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Alex Michelsen
-:-
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils to win@1.43
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 12 h before start
odds 1.30Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Novak Djokovic
-:-
Jan-Lennard Struff
Novak Djokovic to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 11 h before start
odds 1.33Pending
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Arthur Fery
-:-
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.33
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 9 h before start
odds 1.63Pending
ATP Challenger · Brest, France·
Clement Tabur
-:-
Toby Samuel
Toby Samuel to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 9 h before start
odds 1.34Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Taylor Fritz
-:-
Denis Shapovalov
Taylor Fritz to win@1.34
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 05:15 · 12 h before start
odds 1.94Pending
ATP Challenger · Brest, France·
Hugo Gaston
-:-
Moise Kouame
Moise Kouame to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 27 Oct, 09:02 · 11 h before start
odds 1.39DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Serie A·
AS Roma
4:2
Cagliari
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.39 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 09:02 · 10 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Copa del Rey · Copa del Rey: Round 1·
Castellonense
0:0
Almeria
after extra time
Almeria to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 09:02 · 8 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
DFB Cup · DFB Cup: Round 2·
VfL Bochum
2:0
Mainz 05
Mainz 05 to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 09:02 · 8 h before start
Won
DFB Cup · DFB Cup: Round 2·
Hamburger SV
1:3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt to win
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 09:02 · 11 h before start
odds 1.32DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
DFB Cup · DFB Cup: Round 2·
Borussia Dortmund
3:2
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.32 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 14 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 17 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
New York Knicks +3.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 17 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
81:128
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 17 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
105:121
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 17 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
102:112
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.29 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 18 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
111:128
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 20 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
110:114
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +7.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 20 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
120:119
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 20 h before start
odds 2.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
108:111
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line+1.36 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 05:52 · 20 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
125:117
LA Clippers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u